Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Mainz
Hamburg
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bayern Munich
|
31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | +60 | 81 |
| 2 |
Dortmund
|
31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | +45 | 74 |
| 3 |
Leverkusen
|
31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |
Hertha
|
31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | +2 | 49 |
| 5 |
M'gladbach
|
31 | 15 | 3 | 13 | +14 | 48 |
| 6 |
Mainz
|
31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |
Schalke 04
|
31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 45 |
| 8 |
FC Koln
|
32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 41 |
| 9 |
FC Ingolstadt 04
|
31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -6 | 40 |
| 10 |
Wolfsburg
|
31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 |
Hamburg
|
31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 37 |
| 12 |
Augsburg
|
32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |
Darmstadt
|
31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 |
Hoffenheim
|
31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | -12 | 34 |
| 15 |
Stuttgart
|
31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | -17 | 33 |
| 16 |
Werder Bremen
|
31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | -20 | 31 |
| 17 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | -19 | 30 |
| 18 |
Hannover
|
31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | -28 | 22 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Ein Frankfurt
Mainz
Mainz
FC Koln
Wolfsburg
Mainz
Mainz
Augsburg
Werder Bremen
Mainz
Guido Winkmann · 50 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.