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Premier League

Referee: A Kitchen

Aston Villa

U U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Burnley

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 0,40

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 5

9 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 16. · Burnley 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+11	+7.8	16
2	Liverpool	7	5	0	2	+4	+3.1	15
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+8	-1.3	14
4	Bournemouth	7	4	2	1	+3	+2.1	14
5	Crystal Palace	6	3	3	0	+5	+4.6	12
6	Chelsea	7	3	2	2	+4	+1.3	11
7	Sunderland	7	3	2	2	+1	-2.0	11
8	Man City	6	3	1	2	+8	+4.6	10
9	Man United	7	3	1	3	-2	+4.0	10
10	Everton	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.5	8
11	Brighton	6	2	2	2	+0	+1.7	8
12	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.9	8
13	Leeds	7	2	2	3	-4	-0.3	8
14	Brentford	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.0	7
15	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	-1	+0.6	6
16	Aston Villa	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.4	6
17	Nott'm Forest	6	1	2	3	-5	-2.9	5
18	Burnley	6	1	1	4	-7	-8.0	4
19	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-10	-4.7	4
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-9	-3.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+10	+6.7	10
2	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.2	10
3	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
4	Man United	4	3	0	1	+3	+5.2	9
5	Sunderland	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.8	7
6	Brentford	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.1	7
7	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
8	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
9	Man City	3	2	0	1	+5	+3.2	6
10	Everton	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.2	5
11	Brighton	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.3	5
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.4	5
13	Leeds	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.7	5
14	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.3	4
15	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	-2.5	4
16	Aston Villa	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.5	4
17	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.1	3
18	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.4	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.0	10
2	Crystal Palace	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.2	7
3	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.2	6
4	Liverpool	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.4	6
5	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.4	4
6	Man City	3	1	1	1	+3	+1.4	4
7	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.1	4
8	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.3	4
9	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.8	4
10	Newcastle	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
11	Everton	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
12	Brighton	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.5	3
13	Leeds	3	1	0	2	-4	-4.1	3
14	Aston Villa	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Nott'm Forest	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.6	2
16	Wolves	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.6	1
17	Man United	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
18	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
19	Brentford	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.1	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-5.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.