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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Mainz

U T S U U

0–1

Full-time

Freiburg

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,3

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

67%

58%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,38 xG 0,92

61% Possession 39%

19 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

14 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Freiburg 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	11	1	0	+27	+12.8	34
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+34	+27.9	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	0	3	+18	+19.8	30
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+18	+10.2	26
5	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+6	+3.0	24
6	Hoffenheim	13	6	2	5	+2	-1.4	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	6	2	+5	+0.4	18
8	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-1	-2.2	16
9	Wolfsburg	13	5	1	7	-6	-2.6	16
10	Freiburg	12	4	3	5	-8	-0.2	15
11	Augsburg	12	3	5	4	-3	+0.3	14
12	Bochum	13	2	7	4	-12	-7.0	13
13	Werder Bremen	13	3	2	8	-9	-8.1	11
14	Heidenheim	13	3	2	8	-10	-15.9	11
15	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-14	-14.0	9
16	Darmstadt	13	2	3	8	-19	-14.0	9
17	Mainz	12	1	5	6	-13	-5.0	8
18	Union Berlin	12	2	1	9	-15	-4.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	7	6	0	1	+16	+14.5	18
2	Leverkusen	6	6	0	0	+16	+10.2	18
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+3	+5.5	16
6	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+5	+0.2	13
7	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
8	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+1	+0.5	10
9	Heidenheim	6	3	1	2	+1	-5.0	10
10	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.4	10
11	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
12	Augsburg	6	2	3	1	+1	+1.1	9
13	Bochum	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.6	7
14	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.4	5
15	Hoffenheim	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.9	4
16	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.9	4
17	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.7	4
18	Union Berlin	6	1	1	4	-8	-2.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+12	+11.9	16
2	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+3	-1.1	9
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+2	+2.0	9
7	Dortmund	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.5	8
8	M'gladbach	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
9	Bochum	7	1	3	3	-12	-10.6	6
10	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.8	5
11	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
12	Mainz	7	0	4	3	-8	-4.3	4
13	Freiburg	6	1	1	4	-10	-3.9	4
14	Darmstadt	6	1	1	4	-14	-11.6	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	0	6	-11	-2.8	3
17	Werder Bremen	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.7	1
18	Heidenheim	7	0	1	6	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.