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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Leverkusen

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Dortmund

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,3

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 75%

92%

58%

Points per game

2,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 63%

58%

67%

Average goals

3,9

3,7

Scored

3,1

2,1

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,08 xG 0,61

69% Possession 31%

22 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

16 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 1. · Dortmund 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	11	1	0	+27	+12.8	34
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+34	+27.9	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	0	3	+18	+19.8	30
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+18	+10.2	26
5	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+6	+3.0	24
6	Hoffenheim	13	6	2	5	+2	-1.4	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	6	2	+5	+0.4	18
8	Freiburg	13	5	3	5	-7	-1.6	18
9	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-1	-2.2	16
10	Wolfsburg	13	5	1	7	-6	-2.6	16
11	Augsburg	12	3	5	4	-3	+0.3	14
12	Bochum	13	2	7	4	-12	-7.0	13
13	Werder Bremen	13	3	2	8	-9	-8.1	11
14	Heidenheim	13	3	2	8	-10	-15.9	11
15	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-14	-14.0	9
16	Darmstadt	13	2	3	8	-19	-14.0	9
17	Mainz	13	1	5	7	-14	-3.6	8
18	Union Berlin	12	2	1	9	-15	-4.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	7	6	0	1	+16	+14.5	18
2	Leverkusen	6	6	0	0	+16	+10.2	18
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+3	+5.5	16
6	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+5	+0.2	13
7	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
8	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+1	+0.5	10
9	Heidenheim	6	3	1	2	+1	-5.0	10
10	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.4	10
11	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
12	Augsburg	6	2	3	1	+1	+1.1	9
13	Bochum	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.6	7
14	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.4	5
15	Hoffenheim	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.9	4
16	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.9	4
17	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-6	+0.8	4
18	Union Berlin	6	1	1	4	-8	-2.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+12	+11.9	16
2	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+3	-1.1	9
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+2	+2.0	9
7	Dortmund	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.5	8
8	Freiburg	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.4	7
9	M'gladbach	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
10	Bochum	7	1	3	3	-12	-10.6	6
11	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.8	5
12	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
13	Mainz	7	0	4	3	-8	-4.3	4
14	Darmstadt	6	1	1	4	-14	-11.6	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	0	6	-11	-2.8	3
17	Werder Bremen	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.7	1
18	Heidenheim	7	0	1	6	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.