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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Bristol City

T S U S T

1–2

Full-time

Norwich

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 40%

39%

41%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

33%

71%

Both score Ø 58%

44%

71%

Average goals

2,1

3,6

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 0,94

61% Possession 39%

15 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 13. · Norwich 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	19	15	1	3	+22	+14.3	46
2	Ipswich	19	14	3	2	+16	+9.9	45
3	Leeds	18	10	5	3	+13	+15.5	35
4	Southampton	18	10	4	4	+3	+7.1	34
5	West Brom	18	9	5	4	+12	+3.2	32
6	Hull	19	8	6	5	+5	+5.1	30
7	Blackburn	19	9	1	9	+1	+2.1	28
8	Preston	19	8	4	7	-8	-7.7	28
9	Sunderland	19	8	3	8	+7	+11.9	27
10	Watford	19	7	6	6	+5	+2.6	27
11	Cardiff	19	8	3	8	+4	-3.8	27
12	Middlesbrough	19	8	3	8	+2	+9.8	27
13	Bristol City	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.1	25
14	Norwich	17	7	2	8	-2	-2.6	23
15	Birmingham	19	6	5	8	-4	-2.2	23
16	Plymouth	19	6	4	9	+2	-8.8	22
17	Coventry	19	5	7	7	+1	+6.8	22
18	Swansea	19	5	6	8	-1	-5.6	21
19	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-5	-8.2	21
20	Stoke	19	6	3	10	-8	-4.5	21
21	Huddersfield	19	4	8	7	-13	-10.7	20
22	QPR	19	4	4	11	-13	-8.7	16
23	Rotherham	19	2	7	10	-20	-21.3	13
24	Sheffield Weds	19	2	4	13	-19	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	10	9	0	1	+13	+10.3	27
2	Leeds	10	7	3	0	+12	+12.8	24
3	Leicester	9	7	0	2	+9	+6.9	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+8	+4.2	20
5	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	+10	-3.9	19
6	Birmingham	10	5	4	1	+6	+1.1	19
7	Watford	10	5	3	2	+11	+8.6	18
8	Southampton	9	5	2	2	+4	+6.2	17
9	Preston	10	5	2	3	-2	-3.4	17
10	Hull	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.4	16
11	Cardiff	9	5	1	3	+5	-0.6	16
12	Middlesbrough	9	5	1	3	+4	+7.7	16
13	Sunderland	9	5	0	4	+5	+5.8	15
14	Norwich	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.9	15
15	Coventry	9	3	5	1	+3	+5.1	14
16	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+2	+2.1	14
17	Stoke	9	4	1	4	-2	-2.2	13
18	Blackburn	9	4	0	5	-3	+1.5	12
19	Rotherham	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.8	11
20	Swansea	10	2	5	3	+0	-0.1	11
21	Huddersfield	9	2	4	3	-6	-3.9	10
22	Sheffield Weds	10	2	3	5	-6	-0.4	9
23	Millwall	10	2	2	6	-8	-3.6	8
24	QPR	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	10	8	1	1	+13	+7.4	25
2	Ipswich	9	5	3	1	+3	-0.4	18
3	Southampton	9	5	2	2	-1	+0.9	17
4	Blackburn	10	5	1	4	+4	+0.6	16
5	Hull	9	4	2	3	+0	-1.3	14
6	Millwall	9	3	4	2	+3	-4.6	13
7	West Brom	8	3	3	2	+4	-1.0	12
8	Sunderland	10	3	3	4	+2	+6.1	12
9	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.7	11
10	Cardiff	10	3	2	5	-1	-3.2	11
11	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-2	+2.1	11
12	Bristol City	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.0	11
13	QPR	11	3	2	6	-5	-6.2	11
14	Preston	9	3	2	4	-6	-4.4	11
15	Swansea	9	3	1	5	-1	-5.5	10
16	Huddersfield	10	2	4	4	-7	-6.8	10
17	Watford	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
18	Coventry	10	2	2	6	-2	+1.7	8
19	Norwich	9	2	2	5	-4	-4.5	8
20	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-6	-2.3	8
21	Birmingham	9	1	1	7	-10	-3.4	4
22	Plymouth	9	0	3	6	-8	-4.9	3
23	Rotherham	10	0	2	8	-21	-15.5	2
24	Sheffield Weds	9	0	1	8	-13	-4.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.