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Bundesliga

Referee: D Aytekin

Hoffenheim

T S T T U

1–1

Full-time

Mainz

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

55%

Points per game

1,7

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 78%

82%

73%

Both score Ø 78%

91%

64%

Average goals

3,9

3,2

Scored

2,1

1,0

Conceded

1,8

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,42 xG 1,75

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 6. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	11	1	0	+27	+12.8	34
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+34	+27.9	32
3	Stuttgart	12	9	0	3	+16	+17.2	27
4	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+6	+3.0	24
5	RB Leipzig	12	7	2	3	+17	+7.3	23
6	Hoffenheim	11	6	1	4	+3	-0.9	19
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	6	2	+5	+0.4	18
8	Wolfsburg	12	5	1	6	-4	-2.4	16
9	Freiburg	12	4	3	5	-8	-0.2	15
10	Augsburg	12	3	5	4	-3	+0.3	14
11	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-2	-2.4	13
12	Werder Bremen	12	3	2	7	-7	-5.4	11
13	Heidenheim	12	3	2	7	-9	-12.9	11
14	Bochum	12	1	7	4	-14	-7.3	10
15	Darmstadt	12	2	3	7	-18	-13.2	9
16	Mainz	11	1	4	6	-13	-5.4	7
17	Union Berlin	12	2	1	9	-15	-4.0	7
18	FC Koln	12	1	3	8	-15	-14.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	6	6	0	0	+16	+10.2	18
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
3	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+3	+5.5	16
4	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.9	15
5	RB Leipzig	6	4	2	0	+15	+5.3	14
6	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+5	+0.2	13
7	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
8	Heidenheim	6	3	1	2	+1	-5.0	10
9	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.4	10
10	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
11	Augsburg	6	2	3	1	+1	+1.1	9
12	M'gladbach	6	2	1	3	+0	+0.2	7
13	Darmstadt	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.7	5
14	Bochum	5	0	4	1	-2	+3.4	4
15	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.9	4
16	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-5	-0.7	4
17	Union Berlin	6	1	1	4	-8	-2.9	4
18	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	-0.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+12	+11.9	16
2	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	6	5	1	0	+7	-0.2	16
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	2	3	1	+3	-1.1	9
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+2	+2.0	9
7	Dortmund	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.5	8
8	M'gladbach	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
9	Bochum	7	1	3	3	-12	-10.6	6
10	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.8	5
11	Freiburg	6	1	1	4	-10	-3.9	4
12	Darmstadt	6	1	1	4	-14	-11.6	4
13	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
14	Mainz	6	0	3	3	-8	-4.7	3
15	Wolfsburg	6	1	0	5	-9	-2.6	3
16	FC Koln	6	0	2	4	-11	-9.8	2
17	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-6	-4.1	1
18	Heidenheim	6	0	1	5	-10	-7.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.