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Eredivisie
Referee: E Blank
Utrecht
U S U U S
1–1
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,5
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 13/12 matches
Win Ø 49%
23%
75%
Points per game
0,9
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
46%
58%
Both score Ø 44%
46%
42%
Average goals
2,8
2,9
Scored
1,0
2,4
Conceded
1,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,04 xG 1,29
47% Possession 53%
15 Shots 20
4 Shots on target 9
4 Blocked shots 2
8 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Utrecht 15. · AZ Alkmaar 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 14 14 0 0 +44 +30.5 42
2 Feyenoord 14 10 2 2 +28 +27.2 32
3 Twente 14 9 3 2 +13 +9.1 30
4 AZ Alkmaar 12 9 2 1 +23 +12.5 29
5 Go Ahead Eagles 13 6 3 4 +5 -8.1 21
6 Sparta Rotterdam 14 6 3 5 +1 -1.5 21
7 Heerenveen 14 6 1 7 -3 +0.8 19
8 Ajax 13 5 3 5 +3 +2.4 18
9 Zwolle 14 5 2 7 -3 -3.6 17
10 Excelsior 14 3 7 4 -3 -5.0 16
11 For Sittard 14 4 4 6 -9 -2.5 16
12 Heracles 14 4 3 7 -13 -8.2 15
13 Waalwijk 13 4 1 8 -11 -3.9 13
14 Almere City 14 3 4 7 -18 -8.2 13
15 Utrecht 13 3 3 7 -11 -11.3 12
16 Nijmegen 12 2 5 5 -3 -10.8 11
17 Volendam 14 2 2 10 -21 -8.4 8
18 Vitesse 14 2 2 10 -22 -10.8 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,02
U ✓
3,75
B
1,85
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
2,02
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

E Blank · 56 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.