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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Heidenheim

T S S S T

2–3

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,8

Scored

2,3

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,56 xG 2,99

37% Possession 63%

19 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 15. · Hoffenheim 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.8	3
3	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.7	3
6	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
9	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
11	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
13	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
14	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
16	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
17	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0
18	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	+2.3	3
2	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.6	3
3	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
6	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
7	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
8	Augsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
10	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.3	3
2	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
3	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
4	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
5	FC Koln	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
6	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
7	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
8	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
9	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.6	0
10	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.