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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Man United

S S T S T

3–2

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,83 xG 1,21

66% Possession 34%

18 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Man United 13. · Nott'm Forest 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.1	7
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.6	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.7	6
5	Brentford	2	1	1	0	+3	+4.4	4
6	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.7	4
7	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.0	4
8	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+0.9	3
10	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
11	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
13	Man United	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.2	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-4.7	3
15	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.9	1
16	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
17	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
18	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.1	0
19	Everton	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.1	0
20	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
2	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.6	3
3	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.5	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
6	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
7	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
8	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
9	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
10	Man City	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
11	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
12	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
15	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Everton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.2	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
18	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
19	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
4	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
5	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.4	3
6	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
7	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.2	3
8	West Ham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Liverpool	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
11	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
12	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
13	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
14	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
15	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
16	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
17	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.6	0
18	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-2.4	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.