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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Birmingham

T U S S S

2–1

Full-time

Plymouth

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Plymouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,18 xG 1,41

36% Possession 64%

13 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 10

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 4. · Plymouth 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.7	9
2	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+3	-0.3	9
3	Norwich	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.8	7
4	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
5	Hull	4	2	1	1	+2	-2.4	7
6	Southampton	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
7	Preston	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
8	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.5	6
9	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	-1	+1.8	5
10	Watford	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.5	4
11	Coventry	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.1	4
12	Plymouth	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
13	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.6	4
14	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.1	4
15	Sunderland	3	1	0	2	-1	+2.1	3
16	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.2	3
17	QPR	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.0	3
18	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.2	2
19	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.4	2
20	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.5	1
21	Huddersfield	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.0	1
22	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.2	1
23	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-4	+0.6	1
24	Sheffield Weds	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
2	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.5	6
3	Leicester	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
4	Watford	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.7	4
5	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
6	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.4	3
7	Ipswich	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
8	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Preston	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
12	Sunderland	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
13	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
15	Swansea	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.5	2
16	Southampton	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
17	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.0	1
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
20	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
21	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
23	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
24	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Southampton	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.6	6
2	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
3	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
4	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.6	4
5	Preston	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.1	4
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.7	3
8	Millwall	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
9	QPR	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.0	3
10	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.7	1
11	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.0	1
12	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
14	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
15	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
16	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
19	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
20	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
21	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.4	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
23	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.4	0
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.