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Bundesliga

Referee: C Dingert

Hoffenheim

U T T S T

4–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

28%

53%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

66%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,43 xG 1,96

43% Possession 57%

10 Shots 20

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 14. · Union Berlin 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	20	8	4	+55	+17.7	68
2	Dortmund	32	21	4	7	+36	+18.8	67
3	RB Leipzig	32	18	6	8	+19	+11.9	60
4	Union Berlin	32	17	8	7	+14	-4.4	59
5	Freiburg	33	17	8	8	+8	-4.7	59
6	Leverkusen	32	14	7	11	+11	+9.5	49
7	Wolfsburg	33	13	10	10	+10	+4.0	49
8	Ein Frankfurt	32	12	10	10	+5	+0.4	46
9	Mainz	32	12	9	11	+2	-1.4	45
10	FC Koln	32	10	11	11	-4	+4.6	41
11	M'gladbach	32	10	9	13	-5	-6.3	39
12	Werder Bremen	32	10	5	17	-12	-6.9	35
13	Augsburg	32	9	7	16	-16	-7.7	34
14	Hoffenheim	32	9	5	18	-11	-5.3	32
15	Bochum	32	9	4	19	-35	-10.0	31
16	Schalke 04	32	7	9	16	-34	-7.1	30
17	Stuttgart	32	6	11	15	-15	+0.9	29
18	Hertha	32	6	7	19	-28	-14.0	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	16	14	1	1	+38	+14.1	43
2	Bayern Munich	16	11	5	0	+38	+17.4	38
3	RB Leipzig	16	12	2	2	+18	+1.4	38
4	Union Berlin	16	10	6	0	+18	-1.1	36
5	Freiburg	17	10	4	3	+15	-1.3	34
6	M'gladbach	16	9	3	4	+13	+4.1	30
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	8	5	3	+16	+6.5	29
8	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+12	+5.0	26
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	7	3	+10	+5.7	25
10	Mainz	16	6	6	4	+9	-0.2	24
11	FC Koln	16	6	5	5	+9	+7.0	23
12	Bochum	16	7	2	7	-7	-2.8	23
13	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.5	22
14	Stuttgart	16	5	5	6	+1	+1.6	20
15	Hoffenheim	16	6	2	8	-3	+1.6	20
16	Hertha	16	5	5	6	-3	-2.5	20
17	Schalke 04	16	5	4	7	-13	-1.8	19
18	Werder Bremen	16	5	1	10	-2	+0.7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+17	+0.3	30
2	Freiburg	16	7	4	5	-7	-3.4	25
3	Wolfsburg	17	7	3	7	+0	-1.8	24
4	Dortmund	16	7	3	6	-2	+4.7	24
5	Leverkusen	16	6	5	5	-1	+4.5	23
6	Union Berlin	16	7	2	7	-4	-3.4	23
7	RB Leipzig	16	6	4	6	+1	+10.6	22
8	Mainz	16	6	3	7	-7	-1.2	21
9	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	-7.6	19
10	FC Koln	16	4	6	6	-13	-2.4	18
11	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	5	7	-11	-6.0	17
12	Hoffenheim	16	3	3	10	-8	-6.9	12
13	Augsburg	16	3	3	10	-11	-5.2	12
14	Schalke 04	16	2	5	9	-21	-5.3	11
15	Stuttgart	16	1	6	9	-16	-0.7	9
16	M'gladbach	16	1	6	9	-18	-10.4	9
17	Bochum	16	2	2	12	-28	-7.2	8
18	Hertha	16	1	2	13	-25	-11.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.