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Super League

Referee: Nico Gianforte

Thun

S S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Lugano

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thun Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

100%

83%

Points per game

3,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 64%

77%

50%

Points per game

2,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

77%

58%

Both score Ø 64%

69%

58%

Average goals

3,1

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,14 xG 0,78

41% Possession 59%

20 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 8

2 Goalkeeper saves 9

10 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Thun 1. · Lugano 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	10	1	2	+12	-2.9	31
2	Young Boys	14	7	4	3	+7	-0.4	25
3	Basel	13	7	1	5	+6	+8.6	22
4	St. Gallen	12	7	0	5	+9	+3.2	21
5	Sion	13	5	4	4	+3	+5.3	19
6	Lugano	12	6	1	5	+0	+1.6	19
7	Luzern	14	4	6	4	+4	-0.3	18
8	Lausanne	13	4	4	5	+4	+4.0	16
9	Zurich	13	5	1	7	-6	+3.4	16
10	Servette	14	4	3	7	-5	+0.4	15
11	Grasshoppers	13	3	4	6	-9	-10.5	13
12	Winterthur	14	1	3	10	-25	-12.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	7	4	2	1	+10	+5.9	14
2	Thun	6	4	1	1	+5	-3.9	13
3	Lugano	6	4	1	1	+5	+1.3	13
4	St. Gallen	7	4	0	3	+7	+4.4	12
5	Basel	6	4	0	2	+7	+11.0	12
6	Lausanne	7	3	1	3	+6	+5.1	10
7	Zurich	7	3	0	4	-3	+3.5	9
8	Grasshoppers	6	2	2	2	+3	-2.0	8
9	Servette	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Luzern	7	1	4	2	+4	+2.6	7
11	Sion	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.2	7
12	Winterthur	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	7	6	0	1	+7	+1.0	18
2	Sion	7	3	3	1	+2	+5.5	12
3	Luzern	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.9	11
4	Young Boys	7	3	2	2	-3	-6.3	11
5	Basel	7	3	1	3	-1	-2.4	10
6	St. Gallen	5	3	0	2	+2	-1.2	9
7	Servette	7	2	1	4	-3	+0.1	7
8	Zurich	6	2	1	3	-3	-0.1	7
9	Lausanne	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.1	6
10	Lugano	6	2	0	4	-5	+0.3	6
11	Grasshoppers	7	1	2	4	-12	-8.5	5
12	Winterthur	7	0	1	6	-21	-10.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.