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Ligue 1

Referee: Mathieu Vernice

Paris SG

S U S T S

3–0

Full-time

Le Havre

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

33%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,46 xG 1,19

65% Possession 35%

31 Shots 12

11 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 3. · Le Havre 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	13	9	1	3	+21	+12.1	28
2	Lens	13	9	1	3	+11	+4.5	28
3	Paris SG	12	8	3	1	+13	+9.4	27
4	Strasbourg	13	7	1	5	+7	+7.1	22
5	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+5	-0.2	21
6	Lille	12	6	2	4	+8	+7.0	20
7	Lyon	12	6	2	4	+3	+6.3	20
8	Monaco	13	6	2	5	+0	+4.9	20
9	Nice	13	5	2	6	-5	-9.9	17
10	Toulouse	12	4	4	4	+2	+0.4	16
11	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
12	Le Havre	12	3	5	4	-4	+0.5	14
13	Angers	12	3	4	5	-5	-10.5	13
14	Metz	12	3	2	7	-15	-9.0	11
15	Brest	12	2	4	6	-7	-1.6	10
16	Nantes	12	2	4	6	-7	-11.5	10
17	Lorient	12	2	4	6	-12	-2.3	10
18	Auxerre	12	2	1	9	-12	-6.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
2	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
3	Strasbourg	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.2	15
4	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
5	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
6	Paris SG	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.9	13
7	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
8	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
9	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+4	+5.5	12
10	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.5	11
11	Toulouse	6	2	3	1	+3	+2.8	9
12	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
13	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
14	Metz	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
15	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
16	Brest	6	1	3	2	-1	+3.3	6
17	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-2	-0.6	6
18	Nantes	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.5	14
2	Marseille	7	4	0	3	+6	+1.1	12
3	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
4	Lyon	6	2	2	2	-1	+0.7	8
5	Lille	6	2	1	3	+1	+0.5	7
6	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
7	Monaco	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
8	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
9	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
10	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Le Havre	6	1	2	3	-6	-5.3	5
13	Nice	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.9	4
14	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
15	Metz	6	1	0	5	-14	-8.5	3
16	Angers	6	0	2	4	-8	-8.1	2
17	Auxerre	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.4	1
18	Lorient	6	0	1	5	-12	-2.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.