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Taça de Portugal

Guimaraes

S S T T S

4–0

Full-time

Mortágua

S T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Mortágua

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Guimaraes 59. · Mortágua 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Caldas	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Vila Meã	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Academico Viseu	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Mortágua	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	1º Dezembro	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+7	6
10	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
12	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+4	6
14	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
15	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Amarante	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	Fafe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
21	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Vila Caíz	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Vila Real	3	2	0	1	-1	6
25	AD Marco 09	3	2	0	1	-1	6
26	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
27	Marinhense	3	1	2	0	+6	5
28	Anadia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
29	AVS	2	1	1	0	+7	4
30	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
31	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+6	4
32	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
33	União de Leiria	2	1	1	0	+2	4
34	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
35	Torreense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	SC Covilha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
38	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
39	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
40	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
41	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
42	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+4	3
43	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
44	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
45	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
46	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
47	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
48	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
49	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
50	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
51	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
52	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
53	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
54	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
57	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
58	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
60	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Resende	2	1	0	1	-1	3
74	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
75	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
76	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
77	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
78	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
84	Portimonense B	2	0	1	1	-2	1
85	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
136	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
139	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
143	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
144	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
145	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
146	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
147	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
148	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caldas	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
11	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
12	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
13	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
14	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
17	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
18	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
19	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
21	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
22	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
23	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
26	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Amarante	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	AD Marco 09	2	1	0	1	-2	3
44	Vila Real	2	1	0	1	-3	3
45	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
46	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
47	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Torreense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	1º Dezembro	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
55	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
81	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Academico Viseu	2	1	1	0	+3	4
9	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
13	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
14	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
15	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
16	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
43	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Portimonense B	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Resende	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
94	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
95	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
96	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
97	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
98	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
99	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
100	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
101	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
102	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.