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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Brighton

S T T S U

2–1

Full-time

Brentford

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

36%

45%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 69%

73%

64%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,22 xG 1,91

64% Possession 36%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 11. · Brentford 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+15	+13.2	26
2	Chelsea	12	7	2	3	+12	+8.2	23
3	Man City	11	7	1	3	+15	+9.1	22
4	Sunderland	11	5	4	2	+4	-2.9	19
5	Tottenham	11	5	3	3	+9	-4.2	18
6	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+3	-5.1	18
7	Man United	11	5	3	3	+1	+1.7	18
8	Liverpool	11	6	0	5	+1	+4.0	18
9	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	-1	-1.7	18
10	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+5	+6.5	17
11	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+2	+3.6	16
12	Brentford	11	5	1	5	+0	+3.1	16
13	Everton	11	4	3	4	-1	-0.8	15
14	Newcastle	11	3	3	5	-3	+1.8	12
15	Fulham	11	3	2	6	-4	-3.8	11
16	Leeds	11	3	2	6	-10	-1.8	11
17	Burnley	12	3	1	8	-10	-17.0	10
18	West Ham	11	3	1	7	-10	-4.3	10
19	Nott'm Forest	11	2	3	6	-10	-2.9	9
20	Wolves	11	0	2	9	-18	-6.7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.1	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+11	+7.1	13
3	Bournemouth	5	4	1	0	+6	+2.4	13
4	Brentford	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.3	13
5	Aston Villa	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.1	13
6	Sunderland	6	3	3	0	+6	-0.5	12
7	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
8	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.9	12
9	Brighton	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.3	11
10	Everton	6	3	2	1	+2	+1.8	11
11	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+5	+0.3	10
12	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+3.6	10
13	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+3	+5.3	10
14	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	+3.7	9
15	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
16	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-1	-8.0	7
17	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-3	+2.0	7
18	West Ham	6	2	0	4	-7	-3.2	6
19	Tottenham	6	1	2	3	+0	-3.2	5
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+9	+4.6	13
2	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+9	-1.0	13
3	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	+6.1	13
4	Man City	5	2	1	2	+3	+2.0	7
5	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.3	7
6	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.4	7
7	Man United	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.7	6
8	Liverpool	6	2	0	4	-4	+1.0	6
9	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.0	5
10	Brighton	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.3	5
11	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-4.1	5
12	Everton	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.6	4
13	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
14	Brentford	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
15	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-5	-1.9	3
16	Burnley	6	1	0	5	-9	-9.0	3
17	Leeds	6	1	0	5	-11	-6.3	3
18	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
19	Fulham	6	0	1	5	-9	-4.1	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.