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Taça de Portugal

Sp Lisbon

S S S U S

3–0

Full-time

Marinhense

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Marinhense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

100%

33%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

5,0

2,7

Scored

3,0

2,3

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Sp Lisbon 55. · Marinhense 29. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Caldas	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Vila Meã	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	União de Leiria	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Academico Viseu	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	1º Dezembro	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Mortágua	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Lusitânia Lourosa	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
12	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
13	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+5	6
14	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
15	CD Olivais e Moscavide	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
17	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Amarante	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
20	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
21	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
22	Fafe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
23	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Vila Caíz	3	2	0	1	+1	6
25	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
26	Vila Real	3	2	0	1	-1	6
27	AD Marco 09	3	2	0	1	-1	6
28	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
29	Marinhense	3	1	2	0	+6	5
30	Anadia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
31	AVS	2	1	1	0	+7	4
32	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
33	Benfica Castelo Branco	2	1	1	0	+6	4
34	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
35	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
36	Torreense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
37	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
38	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
39	SC Covilha	3	1	1	1	-1	4
40	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
41	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
42	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
43	Louletano	2	1	0	1	+4	3
44	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
45	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
46	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
47	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
48	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
49	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
50	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
51	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
52	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
53	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
54	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
55	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
58	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
60	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
69	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
70	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
71	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
72	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
73	Resende	2	1	0	1	-1	3
74	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
75	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
76	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
77	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
78	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
81	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
82	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
83	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
84	Portimonense B	2	0	1	1	-2	1
85	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
86	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
111	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
112	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
113	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
114	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
115	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
123	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
124	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
125	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
126	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
127	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
130	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
131	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
132	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
133	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
134	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
135	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
136	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
137	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
138	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
139	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
140	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
141	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
142	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
143	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
144	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
145	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
146	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
147	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
148	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Caldas	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Comércio Indústria	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Alpendorada	3	2	0	1	+5	6
4	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Sintrense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Silves	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	CF Os Belenenses	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Atlético CP	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
11	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
12	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
13	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
14	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
15	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
17	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
18	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
19	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
20	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
21	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+4	3
22	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
23	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
24	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
29	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
30	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
31	Amarante	2	1	0	1	+1	3
32	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	União Lamas	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
42	Ançã	2	1	0	1	-1	3
43	SC Covilha	2	1	0	1	-1	3
44	AD Marco 09	2	1	0	1	-2	3
45	Vila Real	2	1	0	1	-3	3
46	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
47	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
48	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Torreense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	AVS	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Anadia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
55	1º Dezembro	2	0	1	1	-2	1
56	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Casa Pia	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	União de Leiria	2	2	0	0	+4	6
6	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Leixoes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Vianense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	Academico Viseu	2	1	1	0	+3	4
11	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
15	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
16	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
17	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
19	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
20	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Felgueiras 1932	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
23	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
26	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
27	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Mirandela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	Mortágua	2	1	0	1	-3	3
42	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
43	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Louletano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Vila Caíz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
78	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
79	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Portimonense B	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Resende	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
89	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
90	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
92	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
93	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
94	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
95	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
96	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
97	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
98	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
99	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
100	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
101	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
102	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.