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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Tom Bauer

Fortuna Dusseldorf

T T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Magdeburg

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fortuna Dusseldorf Magdeburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 21%

25%

17%

Points per game

0,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 38%

50%

25%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,31 xG 2,34

36% Possession 64%

11 Shots 25

5 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 9

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 11

2 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fortuna Dusseldorf 15. · Magdeburg 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	12	9	2	1	+10	+2.1	29
2	Schalke 04	12	9	0	3	+9	+1.8	27
3	Elversberg	12	7	2	3	+13	-3.0	23
4	Hertha	13	7	2	4	+6	-1.0	23
5	Darmstadt	12	6	4	2	+8	+4.4	22
6	Hannover	12	6	3	3	+4	+1.8	21
7	Karlsruhe	12	6	3	3	+1	-3.3	21
8	Kaiserslautern	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.4	20
9	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+1.6	17
10	Holstein Kiel	12	4	3	5	+1	-1.0	15
11	Nurnberg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.5	15
12	Preußen Münster	12	4	2	6	-4	-1.2	14
13	Bochum	13	4	1	8	-3	+3.0	13
14	Greuther Furth	12	4	1	7	-12	-1.3	13
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	2	7	-10	-3.4	11
16	Dresden	13	2	4	7	-7	-1.1	10
17	Braunschweig	13	3	1	9	-13	+0.2	10
18	Magdeburg	12	2	1	9	-13	-0.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.8	15
2	Karlsruhe	6	5	0	1	+5	-0.9	15
3	Schalke 04	6	5	0	1	+4	+1.7	15
4	Elversberg	6	4	2	0	+9	-0.6	14
5	Kaiserslautern	6	4	1	1	+6	+1.3	13
6	Hertha	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.1	13
7	Bielefeld	7	4	0	3	+8	+4.7	12
8	Darmstadt	6	3	3	0	+6	+3.2	12
9	Preußen Münster	6	3	2	1	+3	-1.7	11
10	Bochum	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.2	9
11	Hannover	6	3	0	3	-2	+0.4	9
12	Holstein Kiel	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.1	8
13	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.2	8
14	Greuther Furth	6	2	1	3	-6	-0.6	7
15	Braunschweig	6	1	1	4	-8	+1.9	4
16	Magdeburg	6	1	0	5	-7	+2.4	3
17	Dresden	6	0	2	4	-4	+1.6	2
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	0	2	4	-7	-1.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	6	4	2	0	+5	+1.3	14
2	Hannover	6	3	3	0	+6	+1.5	12
3	Schalke 04	6	4	0	2	+5	+0.1	12
4	Hertha	6	3	1	2	+5	-2.0	10
5	Darmstadt	6	3	1	2	+2	+1.2	10
6	Elversberg	6	3	0	3	+4	-2.5	9
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	3	0	3	-3	-1.8	9
8	Dresden	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.7	8
9	Kaiserslautern	6	2	1	3	+0	-0.8	7
10	Holstein Kiel	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.1	7
11	Nurnberg	6	2	1	3	-1	+0.7	7
12	Karlsruhe	6	1	3	2	-4	-2.4	6
13	Braunschweig	7	2	0	5	-5	-1.8	6
14	Greuther Furth	6	2	0	4	-6	-0.7	6
15	Bielefeld	5	1	2	2	-1	-3.1	5
16	Bochum	7	1	1	5	-5	-2.2	4
17	Magdeburg	6	1	1	4	-6	-3.0	4
18	Preußen Münster	6	1	0	5	-7	+0.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.