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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Bayern Munich

S S S S U

6–2

Full-time

Freiburg

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

3,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 60%

90%

30%

Points per game

2,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

100%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

4,1

2,7

Scored

3,5

1,3

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+2,9

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

3,03 xG 0,57

72% Possession 28%

22 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Freiburg 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	9	1	0	+29	+20.0	28
2	RB Leipzig	10	7	1	2	+7	+4.2	22
3	Dortmund	10	6	3	1	+9	+5.6	21
4	Stuttgart	10	7	0	3	+5	+3.8	21
5	Leverkusen	10	6	2	2	+10	+8.1	20
6	Hoffenheim	11	6	2	3	+5	+0.6	20
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.7	17
8	Werder Bremen	10	4	3	3	-3	-5.3	15
9	FC Koln	10	4	2	4	+2	-1.5	14
10	Freiburg	10	3	4	3	-1	+0.9	13
11	Union Berlin	10	3	3	4	-4	-5.4	12
12	M'gladbach	10	2	3	5	-6	-2.4	9
13	Hamburg	10	2	3	5	-7	-3.6	9
14	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-6	-4.5	8
15	Augsburg	10	2	1	7	-10	-8.8	7
16	St Pauli	10	2	1	7	-11	-5.3	7
17	Mainz	11	1	3	7	-8	-2.5	6
18	Heidenheim	10	1	2	7	-15	-7.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+19	+8.9	15
2	Stuttgart	5	5	0	0	+6	+1.7	15
3	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+11	+8.7	13
4	RB Leipzig	4	4	0	0	+7	+2.9	12
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.0	10
6	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+0	+1.6	10
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.0	9
8	Union Berlin	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.3	9
9	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.8	8
10	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.5	7
11	Hamburg	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.5	7
12	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.9	6
13	Heidenheim	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.8	5
14	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-7	-3.6	5
15	St Pauli	5	1	1	3	-7	-1.8	4
16	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-9	-6.1	3
17	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
18	Mainz	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	6	4	2	0	+7	+1.5	14
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+10	+11.1	13
3	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+4	+2.6	11
4	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.3	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.3	8
6	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	-0.6	7
7	FC Koln	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
8	Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.1	6
9	Wolfsburg	5	2	0	3	-1	-2.4	6
10	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.9	5
11	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-3	-7.0	5
12	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	+1	+1.2	4
13	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-1	-2.7	4
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.1	4
15	St Pauli	5	1	0	4	-4	-3.5	3
16	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
17	Hamburg	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.1	2
18	Heidenheim	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.