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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
Bayern Munich
S S S S U
5–0
Full-time
Dortmund
S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
4,3
3,2
Scored
3,7
2,0
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 70%
70%
70%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
74%
70%
Both score Ø 65%
59%
70%
Average goals
3,6
3,6
Scored
2,6
2,4
Conceded
1,0
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

58% Possession 42%
22 Shots 4
10 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
11 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · Dortmund 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 27 19 6 2 +36 63
2 Bayern Munich 27 19 4 4 +41 61
3 RB Leipzig 28 16 7 5 +31 55
4 Ein Frankfurt 28 15 7 6 +25 52
5 M'gladbach 27 14 5 8 +12 47
6 Wolfsburg 28 13 6 9 +5 45
7 Werder Bremen 27 11 9 7 +10 42
8 Leverkusen 28 13 3 12 +2 42
9 Hoffenheim 27 10 11 6 +15 41
10 Fortuna Dusseldorf 28 11 4 13 -14 37
11 Hertha 28 9 8 11 -5 35
12 Mainz 28 9 6 13 -15 33
13 Freiburg 28 7 11 10 -10 32
14 Schalke 04 28 7 5 16 -17 26
15 Augsburg 27 6 7 14 -13 25
16 Stuttgart 28 5 6 17 -33 21
17 Nurnberg 28 3 8 17 -30 17
18 Hannover 28 3 5 20 -40 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich Dortmund
1–0 M. Hummels
Thiago Alcântara
10′
2–0 R. Lewandowski
17′
40′
🟨 Dan-Axel Zagadou
3–0 Javi Martínez
41′
4–0 S. Gnabry
T. Müller
43′
Half-time 4–0
46′
🔁 J. Weigl
↦ D. Zagadou
62′
🔁 M. Götze
↦ M. Dahoud
F. Ribéry 🔁
↦ K. Coman
68′
69′
🔁 M. Wolf
↦ Ł. Piszczek
Robert Lewandowski 🟨
70′
70′
🟨 Thomas Delaney
L. Goretzka 🔁
↦ Javi Martínez
77′
Renato Sanches 🔁
↦ T. Müller
80′
5–0 R. Lewandowski
S. Gnabry
89′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
5 M. Hummels D
27 D. Alaba D
4 N. Süle D
32 J. Kimmich D
8 Javi Martínez M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
22 S. Gnabry M
29 K. Coman M
25 T. Müller M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (7)
7 F. Ribéry
18 L. Goretzka
35 Renato Sanches
17 J. Boateng
13 Rafinha
26 S. Ulreich
11 J. Rodríguez

Coach: N. Kovač

Dortmund

4-1-4-1
1 R. Bürki G
26 Ł. Piszczek D
4 A. Diallo D
16 M. Akanji D
2 D. Zagadou D
28 A. Witsel M
6 T. Delaney M
19 M. Dahoud M
7 J. Sancho M
11 M. Reus M
34 J. Bruun Larsen M
Bench (7)
33 J. Weigl
10 M. Götze
27 M. Wolf
29 M. Schmelzer
20 M. Philipp
35 M. Hitz
36 Ö. Toprak

Coach: L. Favre

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.