Bundesliga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Bayern Munich
Dortmund
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 4–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dortmund
|
27 | 19 | 6 | 2 | +36 | 63 |
| 2 |
Bayern Munich
|
27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | +41 | 61 |
| 3 |
RB Leipzig
|
28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | +31 | 55 |
| 4 |
Ein Frankfurt
|
28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | +25 | 52 |
| 5 |
M'gladbach
|
27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | +12 | 47 |
| 6 |
Wolfsburg
|
28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | +5 | 45 |
| 7 |
Werder Bremen
|
27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | +10 | 42 |
| 8 |
Leverkusen
|
28 | 13 | 3 | 12 | +2 | 42 |
| 9 |
Hoffenheim
|
27 | 10 | 11 | 6 | +15 | 41 |
| 10 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | -14 | 37 |
| 11 |
Hertha
|
28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 35 |
| 12 |
Mainz
|
28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 33 |
| 13 |
Freiburg
|
28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | -10 | 32 |
| 14 |
Schalke 04
|
28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -17 | 26 |
| 15 |
Augsburg
|
27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -13 | 25 |
| 16 |
Stuttgart
|
28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | -33 | 21 |
| 17 |
Nurnberg
|
28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 |
Hannover
|
28 | 3 | 5 | 20 | -40 | 14 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
M. Neuer
G
J. Kimmich
D
S. Gnabry
M
Coach: N. Kovač
M. Akanji
D
A. Witsel
M
T. Delaney
M
J. Bruun Larsen
M
Coach: L. Favre
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Freiburg
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich
Mainz
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg
M'gladbach
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich
Hertha
Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.