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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Dortmund

S S S U S

3–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,8

2,7

Scored

3,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,5

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 65%

70%

60%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

4,0

2,9

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

4 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 1. · Bayern Munich 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+20	24
2	M'gladbach	11	7	2	2	+13	23
3	Bayern Munich	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	RB Leipzig	10	5	4	1	+10	19
5	Hoffenheim	11	6	1	4	+9	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+10	17
7	Werder Bremen	11	5	2	4	+0	17
8	Hertha	11	4	4	3	-1	16
9	Mainz	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Augsburg	11	3	4	4	+1	13
11	Freiburg	11	3	4	4	-4	13
12	Wolfsburg	11	3	3	5	-2	12
13	Leverkusen	10	3	2	5	-5	11
14	Schalke 04	10	3	1	6	-4	10
15	Nurnberg	11	2	4	5	-13	10
16	Hannover	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	2	7	-15	8
18	Stuttgart	11	2	2	7	-16	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+13	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+9	11
4	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+5	10
6	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Freiburg	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Werder Bremen	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
12	Hannover	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Augsburg	5	1	3	1	+2	6
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	Schalke 04	5	2	0	3	-3	6
16	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Leverkusen	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+4	9
5	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	M'gladbach	6	2	2	2	+1	8
7	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
9	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Augsburg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
11	Hertha	6	1	3	2	-3	6
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Schalke 04	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Mainz	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Stuttgart	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	Hannover	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	0	2	3	-12	2
18	Nurnberg	5	0	2	3	-14	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.