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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Stieler

Dortmund

S S T U T

1–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,7

3,2

Scored

2,8

2,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 65%

60%

70%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

50%

30%

Average goals

3,8

3,1

Scored

2,7

2,4

Conceded

1,1

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	2	1	+17	23
2	RB Leipzig	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Dortmund	10	6	2	2	+16	20
4	Schalke 04	11	6	2	3	+4	20
5	Hannover	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	M'gladbach	11	5	3	3	-2	18
8	Leverkusen	11	4	4	3	+7	16
9	Augsburg	11	4	4	3	+5	16
10	Hoffenheim	10	4	4	2	+3	16
11	Hertha	10	3	4	3	-1	13
12	Stuttgart	11	4	1	6	-4	13
13	Mainz	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Wolfsburg	10	1	7	2	-3	10
15	Hamburg	11	3	1	7	-8	10
16	Freiburg	11	1	5	5	-15	8
17	Werder Bremen	11	0	5	6	-10	5
18	FC Koln	10	0	2	8	-15	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	RB Leipzig	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Stuttgart	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Leverkusen	5	3	2	0	+8	11
5	Schalke 04	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Hoffenheim	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Hertha	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Hannover	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Mainz	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	-1	10
11	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+11	9
12	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+2	8
13	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Freiburg	6	1	4	1	+0	7
15	Hamburg	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	4	1	-3	4
17	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-4	1
18	Werder Bremen	5	0	1	4	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	3	2	1	+5	11
2	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	2	1	+2	11
3	Bayern Munich	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Schalke 04	5	3	0	2	+1	9
5	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	-1	9
6	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Hannover	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	M'gladbach	5	2	2	1	-1	8
9	Wolfsburg	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Hoffenheim	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Leverkusen	6	1	2	3	-1	5
12	Werder Bremen	6	0	4	2	-2	4
13	Hamburg	5	1	0	4	-5	3
14	Hertha	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-7	2
16	FC Koln	6	0	1	5	-11	1
17	Freiburg	5	0	1	4	-15	1
18	Stuttgart	6	0	0	6	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.