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Premiership
Referee: M MacDermid
Aberdeen
U T U U T
0–1
Full-time
Kilmarnock
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aberdeen Kilmarnock
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,0
1,3
Scored
1,5
0,7
Conceded
2,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premiership · 13/15 matches
Win Ø 25%
23%
27%
Points per game
1,0
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
46%
40%
Both score Ø 43%
38%
47%
Average goals
2,9
2,1
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%
18 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 2
10 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 21
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aberdeen 10. · Kilmarnock 7. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Celtic 15 12 3 0 +29 39
2 Rangers 14 10 1 3 +22 31
3 Hearts 14 7 2 5 +2 23
4 St Mirren 15 6 4 5 -2 22
5 Hibernian 15 5 6 4 +1 21
6 Dundee 14 4 6 4 -2 18
7 Kilmarnock 15 4 5 6 -1 17
8 Ross County 15 4 5 6 -6 17
9 Motherwell 16 3 5 8 -9 14
10 Aberdeen 13 3 4 6 -8 13
11 ST Johnstone 14 2 5 7 -13 11
12 Livingston 14 2 4 8 -13 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Oct -23 Kilmarnock – Aberdeen 2–0 8. Apr -23 Aberdeen – Kilmarnock 2–0 28. Dec -22 Kilmarnock – Aberdeen 2–1 1. Oct -22 Aberdeen – Kilmarnock 4–1 20. Feb -21 Aberdeen – Kilmarnock 1–0

Match report

Aberdeen Kilmarnock
Graeme Shinnie 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–0
60′
🔁 R. McKenzie
↦ B. Lyons
Jonny Hayes 🟨
65′
73′
🔁 L. Polworth
↦ L. Donnelly
S. Morris 🔁
↦ Duk
76′
J. McGarry 🔁
↦ A. MacDonald
76′
Stefan Gartenmann 🟨
82′
82′
🔁 M. Kennedy
↦ M. Watkins
86′
🟨 Rory McKenzie
92′
⚽ D. Watson 0–1
M. Kennedy
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Aberdeen

3-5-2
24 K. Roos G
6 S. Gartenmann D
27 A. MacDonald D
5 R. Jensen D
2 N. Devlin M
7 J. McGrath M
10 L. Clarkson M
4 G. Shinnie M
17 J. Hayes M
9 B. Miovski F
11 Duk F
Bench (9)
20 S. Morris
15 J. McGarry
31 R. Doohan
8 C. Barron
33 S. Rubežić
21 D. Polvara
28 J. Milne
19 E. Sokler
23 R. Duncan

Coach: B. Robson

Kilmarnock

3-5-2
1 W. Dennis G
5 L. Mayo D
6 R. Deas D
17 S. Findlay D
11 D. Armstrong M
12 D. Watson M
22 L. Donnelly M
8 B. Lyons M
3 C. Ndaba M
23 M. Watkins F
9 K. Vassell F
Bench (9)
7 R. McKenzie
31 L. Polworth
10 M. Kennedy
21 A. Dallas
14 J. Sanders
15 F. Murray
19 T. Davies
39 G. Mackay-Steven
20 K. O'Hara

Coach: D. McInnes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,32
🔒
U
3,27
🔒
B ✓
3,08
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
2,11
🔒
U2,5 ✓
1,71
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M MacDermid · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.