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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Aston Villa

S S S S U

1–0

Full-time

Man City

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

5,2

Scored

1,8

3,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 64%

64%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

79%

71%

Both score Ø 68%

71%

64%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

2,4

2,6

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,38 xG 0,65

46% Possession 54%

22 Shots 2

7 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 0

0 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 4. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	11	3	1	+19	+16.5	36
2	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+20	+13.2	34
3	Man City	14	9	3	2	+20	+16.6	30
4	Aston Villa	14	9	2	3	+13	+6.1	29
5	Tottenham	14	8	3	3	+8	-1.2	27
6	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+18	+14.0	26
7	Brighton	15	7	4	4	+5	+2.2	25
8	Man United	14	8	0	6	-1	-3.7	24
9	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+0	-4.9	21
10	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	+3	+9.6	19
11	Brentford	15	5	4	6	+2	+9.1	19
12	Fulham	15	5	3	7	-5	-7.2	18
13	Wolves	15	5	3	7	-5	-6.5	18
14	Everton	14	5	2	7	-5	+2.3	17
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	4	7	-7	-3.0	16
16	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-12	-6.0	16
17	Nott'm Forest	15	3	4	8	-11	-7.2	13
18	Luton	15	2	3	10	-14	-17.8	9
19	Burnley	15	2	1	12	-18	-10.9	7
20	Sheffield United	15	1	2	12	-30	-21.1	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+16	+11.4	21
2	Newcastle	8	7	0	1	+15	+11.7	21
3	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.6	20
4	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
5	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	+5.8	17
6	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+6	+2.8	15
7	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	+5.8	12
8	Fulham	7	4	0	3	+3	+1.5	12
9	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+2	-0.1	12
10	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
11	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.0	11
12	Wolves	7	3	2	2	-2	-2.2	11
13	Nott'm Forest	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.8	9
14	Chelsea	8	2	3	3	+0	+5.0	9
15	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
16	Luton	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.5	5
17	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	-1.3	5
18	Everton	7	1	1	5	-4	+5.1	4
19	Sheffield United	8	1	1	6	-14	-11.4	4
20	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-10	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+7	+5.9	16
2	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+6	-1.1	15
3	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
4	Liverpool	8	3	4	1	+4	+1.8	13
5	Everton	7	4	1	2	-1	-2.7	13
6	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
7	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.7	11
8	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	-5	-2.9	11
9	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.6	10
10	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.6	10
11	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-2	-1.9	10
12	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	+3.3	7
13	Wolves	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.4	7
14	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-8	-3.2	7
15	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.8	6
16	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
17	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-8	-6.9	4
18	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
19	Nott'm Forest	8	1	1	6	-12	-8.0	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-16	-9.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.