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Premier League

Referee: J Smith

Fulham

S T T S T

5–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

29%

21%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

57%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,52 xG 0,26

64% Possession 36%

14 Shots 4

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fulham 15. · Nott'm Forest 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	11	3	1	+19	+16.5	36
2	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+18	+12.5	31
3	Man City	14	9	3	2	+20	+16.6	30
4	Aston Villa	14	9	2	3	+13	+6.1	29
5	Tottenham	14	8	3	3	+8	-1.2	27
6	Newcastle	14	8	2	4	+18	+14.0	26
7	Man United	14	8	0	6	-1	-3.7	24
8	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+4	+2.1	22
9	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+0	-4.9	21
10	Chelsea	14	5	4	5	+3	+9.6	19
11	Brentford	14	5	4	5	+3	+9.1	19
12	Wolves	15	5	3	7	-5	-6.5	18
13	Everton	14	5	2	7	-5	+2.3	17
14	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-5	-2.2	16
15	Fulham	14	4	3	7	-10	-9.5	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	-5.0	13
17	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-14	-6.9	13
18	Luton	15	2	3	10	-14	-17.8	9
19	Burnley	15	2	1	12	-18	-10.9	7
20	Sheffield United	14	1	2	11	-28	-20.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+16	+11.4	21
2	Newcastle	8	7	0	1	+15	+11.7	21
3	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.6	20
4	Aston Villa	6	6	0	0	+18	+9.0	18
5	Man City	7	5	2	0	+13	+5.8	17
6	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.7	12
7	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	+5.8	12
8	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+2	-0.1	12
9	Man United	7	4	0	3	-2	+0.3	12
10	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.0	11
11	Wolves	7	3	2	2	-2	-2.2	11
12	Nott'm Forest	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.8	9
13	Chelsea	8	2	3	3	+0	+5.0	9
14	Fulham	6	3	0	3	-2	-0.7	9
15	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
16	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.5	5
17	Luton	7	1	2	4	-3	-3.5	5
18	Everton	7	1	1	5	-4	+5.1	4
19	Sheffield United	7	1	1	5	-12	-10.7	4
20	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-10	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+7	+5.9	16
2	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+6	-1.1	15
3	Man City	7	4	1	2	+7	+10.8	13
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	-1	-2.7	13
5	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
6	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	-1.7	11
7	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	-5	-2.9	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+3	+4.6	10
9	Liverpool	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.1	10
10	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.6	10
11	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-2	-1.9	10
12	Brentford	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.4	7
13	Wolves	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.4	7
14	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.8	6
15	Newcastle	6	1	2	3	+3	+2.3	5
16	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Burnley	7	1	1	5	-8	-6.9	4
18	Bournemouth	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-16	-9.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.