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DFB-Pokal

Referee: T Stieler

Leverkusen

S S S S U

3–1

Full-time

Paderborn

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

7,5

5,5

Scored

6,5

5,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+5,5

+4,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 5. · Paderborn 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	St Pauli	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Kaiserslautern	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+11	6
6	Paderborn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+9	6
8	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+8	6
9	Nurnberg	3	2	0	1	+7	6
10	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+6	6
11	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+5	6
13	FC Saarbrücken	2	2	0	0	+2	6
14	FC 08 Homburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
15	Holstein Kiel	2	1	1	0	+2	4
16	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
17	Magdeburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
19	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
20	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
21	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
22	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
26	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
31	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
35	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
36	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
50	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0
51	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
52	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
53	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
54	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
55	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
56	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
57	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
58	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
59	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
60	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
61	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
62	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
63	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
64	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	FC Saarbrücken	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	FC 08 Homburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	SpVgg Unterhaching	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	FC Viktoria Koln	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Bielefeld	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Holstein Kiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	FSV Frankfurt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sandhausen	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Elversberg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-4	0
31	Balingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	FC Astoria Walldorf	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
34	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-5	0
35	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	TuS RW Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
37	Makkabi	1	0	0	1	-6	0
38	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-7	0
39	Bersenbrück	1	0	0	1	-7	0
40	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-7	0
41	Oberneuland	1	0	0	1	-8	0
42	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-8	0
43	Rostocker FC	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+11	6
3	Paderborn	2	2	0	0	+9	6
4	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+9	6
5	St Pauli	2	2	0	0	+8	6
6	Hamburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Magdeburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+6	3
10	Nurnberg	2	1	0	1	+6	3
11	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
12	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+5	3
14	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Bayern Munich	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+1	3
22	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	+1	3
23	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
25	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-2	3
26	Hannover	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Bochum	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Hansa Rostock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
29	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Karlsruhe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.