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Primeira Liga

Referee: L M Branco Godinho

Porto

S S S S S

1–0

Full-time

Nacional

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 63%

100%

25%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,88 xG 0,08

69% Possession 31%

11 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 1. · Nacional 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.6	12
2	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
3	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.5	10
4	Famalicao	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.2	10
5	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+10	+6.4	9
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.2	8
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
8	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.5	5
9	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.4	5
10	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-4	-3.4	5
11	Nacional	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
12	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.5	4
13	Guimaraes	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
14	Estrela	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.2	3
15	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-0.3	3
16	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
17	AVS	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.2	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.6	6
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
5	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.2	4
6	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
7	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
11	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
12	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
14	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.4	1
15	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.4	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.1	4
6	Nacional	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.0	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
9	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
10	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
11	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
12	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
13	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
14	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
15	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
16	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
17	Guimaraes	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.