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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Southampton

S U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Watford

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 38/42 matches

Win Ø 42%

55%

29%

Points per game

1,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 62%

68%

55%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,9

1,4

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,85 xG 0,84

62% Possession 38%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 5. · Watford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	42	28	4	10	+41	+34.2	88
2	Ipswich	42	26	10	6	+32	+24.0	88
3	Leeds	41	24	9	8	+40	+35.8	81
4	West Brom	40	20	12	8	+28	+7.8	72
5	Southampton	38	21	9	8	+23	+28.5	72
6	Norwich	40	20	8	12	+17	+0.2	68
7	Coventry	41	17	12	12	+17	+11.9	63
8	Preston	41	18	9	14	+0	-10.1	63
9	Middlesbrough	42	18	8	16	+5	+13.2	62
10	Hull	41	17	11	13	+5	+5.1	62
11	Cardiff	42	18	5	19	-10	-23.5	59
12	Bristol City	42	16	9	17	+4	-0.7	57
13	Sunderland	42	15	8	19	+1	+7.0	53
14	Watford	42	12	16	14	+2	+0.5	52
15	Swansea	42	13	11	18	-10	-8.1	50
16	Blackburn	43	13	10	20	-14	-8.7	49
17	Plymouth	43	12	12	19	-8	-19.5	48
18	QPR	42	12	11	19	-14	-5.7	47
19	Millwall	42	12	11	19	-15	-11.8	47
20	Stoke	42	12	10	20	-19	-3.8	46
21	Huddersfield	42	9	16	17	-23	-12.2	43
22	Sheffield Weds	42	12	7	23	-31	-10.1	43
23	Birmingham	42	11	9	22	-19	-9.4	42
24	Rotherham	42	4	11	27	-52	-44.6	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	15	5	1	+29	+25.4	50
2	Ipswich	21	15	5	1	+25	+22.6	50
3	Norwich	20	15	2	3	+22	+9.7	47
4	Leicester	20	15	1	4	+25	+17.6	46
5	West Brom	20	14	4	2	+21	+12.0	46
6	Southampton	19	12	3	4	+21	+20.0	39
7	Preston	21	11	4	6	+3	-2.8	37
8	Coventry	20	9	8	3	+12	+7.9	35
9	Bristol City	21	10	3	8	+8	+3.0	33
10	Plymouth	22	9	5	8	+5	-10.1	32
11	Sunderland	21	10	2	9	+3	+6.2	32
12	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+3	+11.6	31
13	Birmingham	21	8	6	7	+2	+0.4	30
14	Cardiff	21	9	3	9	-3	-11.1	30
15	Hull	21	7	8	6	+5	+7.3	29
16	Sheffield Weds	21	7	6	8	-3	+1.7	27
17	Swansea	21	7	5	9	-2	+2.0	26
18	Millwall	21	7	5	9	-10	-4.1	26
19	Huddersfield	21	6	7	8	-6	-2.3	25
20	Blackburn	21	6	6	9	-5	+1.5	24
21	Stoke	21	6	6	9	-10	+0.5	24
22	Watford	21	5	8	8	+3	+8.3	23
23	QPR	21	5	6	10	-9	+0.0	21
24	Rotherham	21	4	7	10	-7	-13.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	13	3	6	+16	+16.7	42
2	Ipswich	21	11	5	5	+7	+1.4	38
3	Southampton	19	9	6	4	+2	+8.5	33
4	Hull	20	10	3	7	+0	-2.2	33
5	Leeds	20	9	4	7	+11	+10.4	31
6	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+2	+1.6	31
7	Watford	21	7	8	6	-1	-7.8	29
8	Cardiff	21	9	2	10	-7	-12.4	29
9	Coventry	21	8	4	9	+5	+4.0	28
10	West Brom	20	6	8	6	+7	-4.3	26
11	Preston	20	7	5	8	-3	-7.3	26
12	QPR	21	7	5	9	-5	-5.7	26
13	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-9	-10.2	25
14	Bristol City	21	6	6	9	-4	-3.7	24
15	Swansea	21	6	6	9	-8	-10.1	24
16	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-9	-4.3	22
17	Sunderland	21	5	6	10	-2	+0.8	21
18	Norwich	20	5	6	9	-5	-9.5	21
19	Millwall	21	5	6	10	-5	-7.8	21
20	Huddersfield	21	3	9	9	-17	-9.9	18
21	Plymouth	21	3	7	11	-13	-9.4	16
22	Sheffield Weds	21	5	1	15	-28	-11.9	16
23	Birmingham	21	3	3	15	-21	-9.8	12
24	Rotherham	21	0	4	17	-45	-31.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.