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Championship

Referee: A Herczeg

Middlesbrough

T U T U S

5–1

Full-time

Watford

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 41/44 matches

Win Ø 39%

46%

32%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

51%

45%

Both score Ø 57%

54%

59%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,30 xG 0,85

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Watford 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	44	26	11	7	+46	+35.5	89
2	Ipswich	43	22	13	8	+30	+29.7	79
3	Millwall	43	22	11	10	+13	+7.7	77
4	Southampton	42	21	12	9	+28	+21.1	75
5	Wrexham	44	19	13	12	+6	-5.8	70
6	Middlesbrough	41	19	12	10	+14	+25.2	69
7	Hull	41	19	10	12	+7	-22.6	67
8	Derby	44	19	9	16	+8	+2.0	66
9	Norwich	44	19	7	18	+8	-2.9	64
10	Birmingham	44	16	12	16	+0	+12.8	60
11	Swansea	44	17	9	18	-4	-5.3	60
12	Bristol City	44	16	11	17	-1	-8.0	59
13	QPR	44	16	10	18	-8	-2.5	58
14	Sheffield United	44	17	6	21	+0	+14.0	57
15	Watford	44	14	15	15	-4	+3.1	57
16	Preston	44	14	15	15	-6	-15.7	57
17	Stoke	44	15	10	19	-1	-11.6	55
18	West Brom	44	13	13	18	-9	+10.4	52
19	Blackburn	45	13	13	19	-13	+1.2	52
20	Portsmouth	44	13	12	19	-17	-3.3	51
21	Charlton	44	12	14	18	-13	-16.2	50
22	Leicester	45	11	16	18	-11	-11.8	49
23	Oxford	44	10	14	20	-15	-7.3	44
24	Sheffield Weds	44	1	12	31	-58	-49.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	22	16	4	2	+30	+25.2	52
2	Ipswich	22	13	8	1	+23	+24.8	47
3	Southampton	21	12	6	3	+19	+15.2	42
4	Birmingham	22	11	8	3	+16	+19.4	41
5	Millwall	21	12	3	6	+8	+8.0	39
6	Watford	22	10	7	5	+7	+6.0	37
7	Middlesbrough	21	10	6	5	+8	+14.0	36
8	Swansea	22	10	6	6	+5	-1.5	36
9	Derby	22	10	6	6	+5	+4.5	36
10	Wrexham	22	10	6	6	+4	+7.3	36
11	Hull	20	10	5	5	+5	-4.5	35
12	Stoke	22	9	6	7	+8	+3.0	33
13	QPR	22	10	3	9	+4	+6.9	33
14	West Brom	22	8	9	5	+3	+13.1	33
15	Sheffield United	22	9	4	9	+6	+14.9	31
16	Preston	22	8	7	7	+0	-3.4	31
17	Portsmouth	22	8	5	9	+2	+7.4	29
18	Norwich	22	9	2	11	-1	+0.2	29
19	Bristol City	22	8	4	10	+0	-4.4	28
20	Leicester	23	7	7	9	-3	-0.1	28
21	Charlton	22	8	4	10	-4	-2.3	28
22	Oxford	22	6	8	8	-6	+2.3	26
23	Blackburn	22	4	9	9	-7	+5.2	21
24	Sheffield Weds	22	0	7	15	-31	-21.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	22	10	8	4	+5	-0.3	38
2	Coventry	22	10	7	5	+16	+10.3	37
3	Norwich	22	10	5	7	+9	-3.1	35
4	Wrexham	22	9	7	6	+2	-13.0	34
5	Southampton	21	9	6	6	+9	+5.8	33
6	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+6	+11.2	33
7	Ipswich	21	9	5	7	+7	+4.8	32
8	Hull	21	9	5	7	+2	-18.0	32
9	Bristol City	22	8	7	7	-1	-3.7	31
10	Blackburn	23	9	4	10	-6	-4.0	31
11	Derby	22	9	3	10	+3	-2.5	30
12	Sheffield United	22	8	2	12	-6	-0.9	26
13	Preston	22	6	8	8	-6	-12.3	26
14	QPR	22	6	7	9	-12	-9.4	25
15	Swansea	22	7	3	12	-9	-3.8	24
16	Charlton	22	4	10	8	-9	-13.9	22
17	Stoke	22	6	4	12	-9	-14.7	22
18	Portsmouth	22	5	7	10	-19	-10.7	22
19	Leicester	22	4	9	9	-8	-11.7	21
20	Watford	22	4	8	10	-11	-2.9	20
21	West Brom	22	5	4	13	-12	-2.7	19
22	Birmingham	22	5	4	13	-16	-6.7	19
23	Oxford	22	4	6	12	-9	-9.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	22	1	5	16	-27	-27.6	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.