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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Man United

T T S S S

0–3

Full-time

Man City

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 67%

56%

78%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

56%

67%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,2

2,1

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,95 xG 4,00

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 21

3 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 12

4 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 4

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 8. · Man City 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	2	0	+13	+5.0	26
2	Arsenal	10	7	3	0	+15	+10.9	24
3	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+14	+10.2	23
4	Aston Villa	10	7	1	2	+12	+5.1	22
5	Man City	9	7	0	2	+12	+9.7	21
6	Newcastle	10	5	2	3	+15	+11.7	17
7	Brighton	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.3	17
8	Man United	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.0	14
10	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+4	+6.5	13
11	Chelsea	10	3	3	4	+2	+7.1	12
12	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-4	-4.5	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	-3.5	12
14	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	-8.2	12
15	Everton	10	3	1	6	-4	+2.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	10	2	4	4	-5	-4.5	10
17	Bournemouth	10	1	3	6	-13	-11.2	6
18	Luton	10	1	2	7	-11	-8.2	5
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-17	-10.9	4
20	Sheffield United	10	0	1	9	-22	-16.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	5	5	0	0	+16	+6.9	15
2	Liverpool	5	5	0	0	+12	+10.4	15
3	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+6.8	14
4	Newcastle	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.4	12
5	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
6	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
7	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+5	+2.2	11
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
10	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.2	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
13	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
15	Wolves	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.6	5
16	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-11	-8.4	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
2	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.1	10
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
7	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.7	7
9	Everton	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.0	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.4	7
12	Brighton	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
13	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
14	Fulham	6	1	3	2	-5	-5.6	6
15	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.3	5
16	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	-5.3	4
17	Nott'm Forest	6	1	1	4	-6	-5.6	4
18	Luton	6	1	1	4	-8	-9.3	4
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.