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Copa del Rey

Referee: Guillermo Conejero

Arandina

1–0

Full-time

Real Murcia

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
32	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
33	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Ursaria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Covadonga	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
33	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	La Coruna	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Cayón	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arandina Real Murcia

1–0 A. El Battioui ⚽

43′

Half-time 1–0

46′

🔁 Dani Vega

↦ Antonio Toral

47′

🟨 A. Gonzalez

57′

🔁 José Ángel Carrillo

↦ Álex Rubio

57′

🔁 Isi Gómez

↦ Iker Guarrotxena

58′

🔁 Rodri

↦ Tomás Pina

Gonzalo Serrano 🔁

↦ A. El Battioui

65′

Sergio Santa Cruz 🔁

↦ Átomo

65′

71′

🔁 Sergio Santos

↦ José Ruiz

72′

🟨 C. Rojas

Raly 🔁

↦ Manzano

76′

Carmelo Sánchez 🔁

↦ Zazu

85′

Fredi Sualdea 🔁

↦ P. Otu

86′

Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Arandina

1 Adrián Álvarez

11 Zazu

4 Jorge Pesca

15 P. Otu

19 D. Ochoa

18 Jaime Márquez

22 Hajimari Ceesay

6 Vitolo

20 Manzano

12 Átomo

7 A. El Battioui

Bench (6)

21 Gonzalo Serrano

10 Sergio Santa Cruz

17 Raly

14 Carmelo Sánchez

9 Fredi Sualdea

13 Roberto Jara

Coach: Álex Izquierdo

Real Murcia

13 Iker Piedra

6 Alberto González

2 José Ruiz

3 Marc Baró

30 Junior Hernández

21 Tomás Pina

28 L. Duarte

10 Iker Guarrotxena

18 Carlos Rojas

Álex Rubio

32 Antonio Toral

Bench (11)

17 Dani Vega

11 José Ángel Carrillo

7 Isi Gómez

9 Rodri

20 Sergio Santos

26 Andrés Carmona

31 Juande

29 Erik Santiago

1 Manu García

33 Totti

23 Imanol Alonso

Coach: G. Munúa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

–

🔒

–

🔒

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

🔒

U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

🔒

BLS nei ✓

–

🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Arandina

Real Murcia

Odds comparison

Recent matches