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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Newcastle

U S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Man United

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 18/16 matches

Win Ø 28%

50%

Points per game

0,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

56%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 19. · Man United 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	19	15	2	2	+38	47
2	Liverpool	18	12	5	1	+35	41
3	Chelsea	19	12	5	2	+29	41
4	Arsenal	19	11	2	6	+9	35
5	Tottenham	16	9	2	5	+2	29
6	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+6	28
7	Man United	16	8	3	5	+2	27
8	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-1	25
9	Brighton	17	5	8	4	-1	23
10	Leicester	17	6	4	7	-3	22
11	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-4	22
12	Crystal Palace	18	4	8	6	-3	20
13	Brentford	17	5	5	7	-3	20
14	Southampton	18	4	8	6	-9	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-8	19
16	Leeds	18	3	7	8	-18	16
17	Watford	16	4	1	11	-10	13
18	Burnley	15	1	8	6	-7	11
19	Newcastle	18	1	7	10	-23	10
20	Norwich	18	2	4	12	-31	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	1	1	+25	25
2	Arsenal	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	9	5	3	1	+15	18
6	Crystal Palace	9	3	5	1	+6	14
7	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+3	13
9	Aston Villa	9	4	1	4	+1	13
10	Man United	8	4	1	3	+1	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
12	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
14	Wolves	9	3	2	4	-2	11
15	Brentford	8	3	1	4	+0	10
16	Leeds	9	2	4	3	-5	10
17	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
18	Watford	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Newcastle	9	1	4	4	-9	7
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Man City	9	7	1	1	+13	22
3	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+19	20
4	West Ham	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Man United	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
8	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
9	Brentford	9	2	4	3	-3	10
10	Aston Villa	9	3	0	6	-5	9
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-10	9
13	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Watford	8	2	0	6	-3	6
15	Everton	9	1	3	5	-8	6
16	Crystal Palace	9	1	3	5	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	8	1	2	5	-17	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.