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Copa del Rey

Referee: José Pardeiro

Real Avilés

0–1

Full-time

Arenteiro

S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
28	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
29	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
58	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
59	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
26	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
27	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
29	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
30	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Real Avilés Arenteiro

32′

⚽ Marquitos 0–1

Juan Delgado

M. Dos Santos 🟨

36′

42′

🟨 T. Rodriguez

Half-time 0–1

64′

🔁 Vitra

↦ Tiago Rodríguez

64′

🔁 Luis Chacón

↦ Manin

Claudio Medina 🔁

↦ Joel del Pino

65′

Davo Fernández 🔁

↦ Natalio

65′

J. del Amo 🟨

70′

Jorge Fernández 🔁

↦ Javi Mecerreyes

74′

Isma Cerro 🔁

↦ Miquel Alorda

74′

76′

🔁 N. Fedor

↦ Iván Ramos

76′

🔁 Romay

↦ Juan Delgado

81′

🔁 Pol Bueso

↦ Marquitos

Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Real Avilés

1 Davo Armengol

3 M. dos Santos

5 Jesús del Amo

11 Iván Serrano

24 G. Khvedelidze

8 Javi Mecerreyes

9 Miquel Alorda

19 Natalio

10 Pablo Espina

21 Joel del Pino

20 Marcos Trabanco

Bench (8)

18 Claudio Medina

17 Davo Fernández

7 Jorge Fernández

22 Isma Cerro

15 Orfila

13 Álvaro Fernández

2 Néstor Senra

16 Miguel Ángel

Coach: Emilio Cañedo

Arenteiro

1 Pablo Brea

22 Jordan Sánchez

3 Germán Novoa

Javi Moreno

20 T. Berardozzi

16 Vicente Esquerdo

6 Tiago Rodríguez

17 Juan Delgado

10 Marquitos

9 Manin

19 Iván Ramos

Bench (9)

4 Vitra

23 Luis Chacón

7 N. Fedor

21 Romay

5 Pol Bueso

11 A. Pastoriza

18 Álvaro Ramón

2 Lucas Sena

13 Diego García

Coach: Javi Rey

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

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B ✓

–

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Over/under goals

O1,5

–

🔒

U1,5 ✓

–

🔒

O2,5

–

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U2,5 ✓

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

–

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BLS nei ✓

–

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Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Real Avilés

Arenteiro

Odds comparison

Recent matches