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Copa del Rey
Referee: Luis Milla
Navalcarnero
T
0–1
Full-time
Alcorcon
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Navalcarnero Alcorcon
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,0
Conceded
3,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-2,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Eibar 1 1 0 0 +4 3
2 Buñol 1 1 0 0 +3 3
3 Las Palmas 1 1 0 0 +3 3
4 Levante 1 1 0 0 +3 3
5 Deportivo Murcia 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Turégano 1 1 0 0 +2 3
7 Hernán Cortés 1 1 0 0 +2 3
8 Espanol 1 1 0 0 +2 3
9 Almeria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 Castellon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
11 Atlético Lugones 1 1 0 0 +1 3
12 Tardienta 1 1 0 0 +1 3
13 Chiclana 1 1 0 0 +1 3
14 Boiro 1 1 0 0 +1 3
15 Quintanar 1 1 0 0 +1 3
16 Rubí 1 0 1 0 +0 1
17 Rotlet Molinar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
18 Cacereño 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Pradejón 1 0 0 1 -1 0
20 Zirauki 1 0 0 1 -1 0
21 Mijas Las Lagunas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
22 Monte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
23 Unión Zona Norte 1 0 0 1 -1 0
24 Melilla CD 1 0 0 1 -2 0
25 Santurtzi 1 0 0 1 -2 0
26 Sauzal 1 0 0 1 -2 0
27 Mensajero 1 0 0 1 -2 0
28 CF Talavera 1 0 0 1 -2 0
29 Ceuta 6 de Junio 1 0 0 1 -3 0
30 Manacor 1 0 0 1 -3 0
31 Varea 1 0 0 1 -3 0
32 Lorca Deportiva 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Navalcarnero Alcorcon
21′
⚽ Javi Lara 0–1
C. Faya 🟨
31′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 Javi Castro
↦ Óscar Rivas
65′
🔁 J. Babin
↦ Álex López
65′
🔁 Jacobo González
↦ Chema Rodríguez
Rubén del Valle 🔁
↦ Saúl
73′
Jaime Sancho 🔁
↦ A. Alonso
73′
81′
🟨 E. Gomez
Ruizma 🔁
↦ Guti
81′
Carlos Llamas 🔁
↦ C. Faya
81′
82′
🔁 Xavi Quintillà
↦ Eric Gómez
87′
🟨 J. Rodriganez
88′
🔁 Y. Eteki
↦ Javi Lara
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Navalcarnero

3-4-3
13 Ñete
4 David Uña
5 Luis Fratelli D
3 L. Méndez
16 Luis Aguado M
10 David Sánchez M
8 C. Faya
20 A. Alonso
7 Guti
19 Saúl
17 Mario Rivas F
Bench (11)
6 Rubén del Valle
12 Jaime Sancho
11 Ruizma
21 Carlos Llamas
22 Aitor Lorea
23 Simo
15 Álex Serra
1 Óscar López
14 Yago Gandoy
2 Víctor Calarge
24 Víctor Martín

Coach: José Portillo

Alcorcon

4-4-2
13 Lucas Anacker G
29 Èric Callis D
4 Óscar Rivas D
23 Chema Rodríguez D
27 Eric Gómez D
30 Iñigo García M
14 Álex López M
5 Pedro Mosquera M
15 Javi Lara M
21 Koldo Obieta F
22 Juan Artola F
Bench (11)
2 Javi Castro
6 J. Babin
8 Jacobo González
19 Xavi Quintillà
18 Y. Eteki
32 Héctor Criado
34 Israel García
9 Chiki
33 Edu Llorente
26 E. Addai
1 Jesús Ruiz

Coach: Fran Fernández

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Luis Milla · 48 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
6,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.