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League Cup

Referee: M Salisbury

Everton

S T S T S

3–0

Full-time

Burnley

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Everton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — League Cup · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

14 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Everton 11. · Burnley 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Port Vale	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Blackburn	3	3	0	0	+12	9
4	Ipswich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+3	6
10	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
11	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Mansfield Town	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Reading	2	1	1	0	+4	4
16	Portsmouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
17	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
18	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
19	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+1	4
20	Lincoln	3	1	1	1	+1	4
21	Sutton Utd	3	1	1	1	+0	4
22	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	-1	4
23	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+4	3
24	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
25	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
26	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
27	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
28	Gillingham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
29	Wycombe	2	1	0	1	+1	3
30	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
32	Peterborough	3	0	3	0	+0	3
33	AFC Wimbledon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
34	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
35	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	+0	3
36	Birmingham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
37	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
38	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
39	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
40	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
41	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
42	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
43	Stevenage	2	0	2	0	+0	2
44	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
45	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
46	Bradford	3	0	2	1	-2	2
47	Salford City	3	0	2	1	-4	2
48	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
55	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
56	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
57	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
58	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
59	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
60	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
61	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
62	Tranmere	2	0	1	1	-2	1
63	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-5	1
64	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
67	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
68	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
69	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
70	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
71	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
72	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
73	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
74	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
75	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
80	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
81	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
82	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
83	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
84	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
85	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
86	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
87	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
88	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
89	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
90	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
91	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
92	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Port Vale	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Exeter City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
3	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Newport County	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Mansfield Town	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Wolves	1	1	0	0	+5	3
11	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+3	3
12	Man United	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	3
14	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Gillingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Leeds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+0	3
23	Bolton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
24	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-7	3
25	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
26	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
27	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Cardiff	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Sutton Utd	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Peterborough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Accrington ST	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Salford City	2	0	1	1	-4	1
40	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Doncaster	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Birmingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Forest Green	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-2	0
53	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Notts County	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Bradford	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Lincoln	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+8	3
8	Reading	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Port Vale	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Sutton Utd	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-3	3
21	Peterborough	2	0	2	0	+0	2
22	Bradford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
23	Crewe	2	0	2	0	+0	2
24	Tranmere	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Salford City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Cambridge United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
30	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Stockport County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Morecambe	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Swindon Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Stevenage	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Brentford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Walsall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Fleetwood Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	AFC Wimbledon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Shrewsbury	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Man City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Brighton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Barrow	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
54	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Leyton Orient	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Grimsby	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-3	0
60	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.