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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Derby

T U S T U

1–1

Full-time

Charlton

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Charlton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

14%

43%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

29%

Both score Ø 50%

71%

29%

Average goals

3,1

1,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,9

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,81 xG 0,60

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 20. · Charlton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	7	5	2	0	+7	+1.9	17
2	Stoke	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.3	14
3	Coventry	7	3	4	0	+11	+8.8	13
4	Bristol City	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.9	13
5	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+3	-2.0	13
6	Preston	8	3	4	1	+2	-2.2	13
7	Swansea	8	3	3	2	+2	+0.4	12
8	Charlton	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.0	11
9	West Brom	7	3	2	2	+1	+1.7	11
10	QPR	7	3	2	2	-2	-1.1	11
11	Millwall	7	3	2	2	-2	+1.7	11
12	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-3	+3.0	11
13	Ipswich	7	2	4	1	+5	+5.6	10
14	Wrexham	8	2	3	3	-1	-5.6	9
15	Southampton	7	2	3	2	-1	+4.0	9
16	Hull	8	2	3	3	-3	-3.4	9
17	Norwich	7	2	2	3	+0	-4.0	8
18	Watford	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.9	8
19	Portsmouth	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.4	8
20	Derby	7	1	3	3	-4	-5.9	6
21	Blackburn	7	2	0	5	-4	+0.2	6
22	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-7	-4.9	6
23	Oxford	7	1	2	4	-2	-0.2	5
24	Sheffield United	8	1	0	7	-12	-4.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.4	10
2	Coventry	4	2	2	0	+9	+7.1	8
3	Ipswich	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.9	8
4	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.6	8
5	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.0	8
6	Preston	4	2	2	0	+2	-1.7	8
7	Charlton	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.2	7
8	QPR	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.9	7
9	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
10	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.6	7
11	Hull	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.2	7
12	Swansea	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.9	6
13	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
14	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.7	5
15	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.6	4
16	Portsmouth	3	1	0	2	-2	+1.0	3
17	Millwall	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.8	3
18	Oxford	4	0	2	2	-2	+1.4	2
19	Wrexham	4	0	2	2	-3	-0.9	2
20	Derby	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
21	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-8	-2.7	1
22	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-3	-0.3	0
23	Blackburn	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.6	0
24	Sheffield United	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	4	2	2	0	+6	+1.8	8
2	Norwich	4	2	2	0	+3	-3.7	8
3	Millwall	4	2	2	0	+2	+1.0	8
4	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
5	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+3	-0.2	7
6	Wrexham	4	2	1	1	+2	-4.7	7
7	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
8	Swansea	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.5	6
9	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+0	+1.8	6
10	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.7	5
11	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.1	5
12	Leicester	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.7	5
13	Preston	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.5	5
14	Portsmouth	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.7	5
15	Southampton	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.4	5
16	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	-3.2	5
17	Charlton	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.2	4
18	QPR	4	1	1	2	-5	-2.0	4
19	Oxford	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.6	3
20	Birmingham	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.1	3
21	Sheffield United	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.0	3
22	Ipswich	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.7	2
23	Hull	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.2	2
24	Watford	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.