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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Derby

T T U S U

1–2

Full-time

QPR

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby QPR

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

20%

45%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

35%

55%

Both score Ø 60%

55%

65%

Average goals

1,9

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

6 Shots 10

1 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 11

1 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · QPR 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	21	14	4	3	+34	46
2	Bournemouth	21	12	7	2	+20	43
3	West Brom	21	10	7	4	+12	37
4	Blackburn	21	10	6	5	+11	36
5	Coventry	21	10	6	5	+7	36
6	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+5	34
7	QPR	20	9	5	6	+6	32
8	Swansea	21	8	6	7	+2	30
9	Middlesbrough	21	8	5	8	+2	29
10	Reading	21	9	2	10	-4	29
11	Sheffield United	20	8	4	8	+3	28
12	Huddersfield	19	8	4	7	+2	28
13	Preston	21	7	7	7	-3	28
14	Luton	20	7	6	7	+4	27
15	Millwall	20	6	9	5	-1	27
16	Blackpool	20	7	6	7	-2	27
17	Birmingham	21	7	5	9	-5	26
18	Bristol City	21	7	5	9	-8	26
19	Derby	20	4	10	6	-3	22
20	Cardiff	21	6	4	11	-13	22
21	Nott'm Forest	18	5	6	7	-1	21
22	Hull	21	6	3	12	-8	21
23	Peterboro	20	4	4	12	-21	16
24	Peterborough	20	4	4	12	-21	16
25	Barnsley	21	2	7	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	11	8	2	1	+14	26
2	Fulham	10	7	2	1	+17	23
3	Blackburn	11	7	2	2	+11	23
4	Stoke	11	7	2	2	+8	23
5	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+11	22
6	Bournemouth	10	6	3	1	+12	21
7	QPR	10	6	3	1	+8	21
8	Swansea	11	5	4	2	+8	19
9	Huddersfield	9	6	1	2	+5	19
10	Preston	11	5	4	2	+3	19
11	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
12	Luton	10	5	2	3	+7	17
13	Middlesbrough	11	5	2	4	+4	17
14	Reading	11	5	2	4	+2	17
15	Millwall	10	4	4	2	+1	16
16	Derby	9	3	5	1	+2	14
17	Birmingham	10	4	2	4	-2	14
18	Blackpool	10	4	2	4	-2	14
19	Peterboro	10	3	4	3	+2	13
20	Peterborough	10	3	4	3	+2	13
21	Bristol City	10	2	5	3	-2	11
22	Hull	11	3	2	6	-4	11
23	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-5	8
24	Barnsley	10	2	2	6	-7	8
25	Cardiff	10	2	1	7	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	11	7	2	2	+17	23
2	Bournemouth	11	6	4	1	+8	22
3	West Brom	11	4	3	4	+1	15
4	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	-5	15
5	Bristol City	11	5	0	6	-6	15
6	Nott'm Forest	9	3	4	2	+4	13
7	Blackpool	10	3	4	3	+0	13
8	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	+0	13
9	Middlesbrough	10	3	3	4	-2	12
10	Birmingham	11	3	3	5	-3	12
11	Reading	10	4	0	6	-6	12
12	QPR	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Millwall	10	2	5	3	-2	11
14	Stoke	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Sheffield United	9	3	2	4	-5	11
16	Swansea	10	3	2	5	-6	11
17	Luton	10	2	4	4	-3	10
18	Hull	10	3	1	6	-4	10
19	Coventry	10	2	4	4	-7	10
20	Huddersfield	10	2	3	5	-3	9
21	Preston	10	2	3	5	-6	9
22	Derby	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Barnsley	11	0	5	6	-11	5
24	Peterboro	10	1	0	9	-23	3
25	Peterborough	10	1	0	9	-23	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.