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Championship

Referee: T Nield

Millwall

S S T S S

0–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,60 xG 0,99

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 10

4 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 5. · Middlesbrough 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.8	6
2	Coventry	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.8	4
3	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
4	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
5	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
7	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
8	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
9	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
11	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.4	3
12	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
16	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
17	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
18	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
19	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
20	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
21	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
22	Wrexham	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.6	0
23	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0
24	Derby	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.7	3
2	Southampton	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
3	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.9	3
4	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
5	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Charlton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
9	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
10	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
11	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
12	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
13	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
15	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-3	+1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+3	-1.0	3
2	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
5	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
6	Portsmouth	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Ipswich	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
10	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
11	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.9	0
12	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.5	0
13	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
14	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.