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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Millwall

U S S S T

1–3

Full-time

Middlesbrough

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

31%

42%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 46%

38%

54%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,16 xG 2,31

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 15. · Middlesbrough 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	27	21	2	4	+34	+23.0	65
2	Ipswich	26	16	7	3	+15	+11.4	55
3	Southampton	25	14	7	4	+14	+17.5	49
4	Leeds	25	13	6	6	+19	+19.1	45
5	West Brom	25	12	6	7	+13	+5.1	42
6	Coventry	27	10	10	7	+12	+6.5	40
7	Sunderland	26	12	4	10	+8	+12.8	40
8	Hull	27	11	6	10	+3	+6.6	39
9	Norwich	26	11	5	10	+2	-5.4	38
10	Cardiff	26	11	4	11	+1	-8.9	37
11	Watford	26	9	9	8	+6	+3.9	36
12	Bristol City	26	10	6	10	+2	+2.5	36
13	Middlesbrough	26	11	3	12	-1	+11.9	36
14	Preston	26	10	5	11	-13	-10.3	35
15	Millwall	26	8	8	10	-3	-5.5	32
16	Swansea	26	8	8	10	-4	-10.0	32
17	Blackburn	26	10	2	14	-9	-1.9	32
18	Plymouth	26	7	8	11	-2	-12.5	29
19	Stoke	26	7	8	11	-7	-2.5	29
20	Birmingham	26	7	7	12	-11	-4.9	28
21	Huddersfield	26	5	10	11	-18	-14.4	25
22	Sheffield Weds	26	6	4	16	-19	-4.6	22
23	QPR	26	5	6	15	-16	-10.6	21
24	Rotherham	26	3	9	14	-26	-29.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	13	11	0	2	+20	+13.0	33
2	Leeds	13	9	4	0	+19	+16.1	31
3	Ipswich	13	9	3	1	+13	+12.4	30
4	West Brom	13	8	3	2	+10	+7.1	27
5	Southampton	12	8	2	2	+14	+13.4	26
6	Coventry	14	6	7	1	+9	+6.0	25
7	Plymouth	13	7	3	3	+11	-2.7	24
8	Sunderland	13	8	0	5	+6	+8.0	24
9	Norwich	12	7	2	3	+6	+3.3	23
10	Hull	14	6	4	4	+7	+7.8	22
11	Watford	14	5	5	4	+7	+8.1	20
12	Birmingham	13	5	5	3	+3	-1.2	20
13	Cardiff	13	6	2	5	+3	-4.2	20
14	Bristol City	13	6	2	5	+2	+2.2	20
15	Preston	13	6	2	5	-6	-5.1	20
16	Middlesbrough	13	6	1	6	+0	+8.3	19
17	Swansea	13	4	5	4	+1	-0.6	17
18	Stoke	13	4	4	5	-3	+1.6	16
19	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-5	+2.0	16
20	Rotherham	13	3	6	4	-1	-7.5	15
21	Sheffield Weds	13	4	3	6	-4	+0.6	15
22	Millwall	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.1	15
23	Huddersfield	13	3	5	5	-6	-4.4	14
24	QPR	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	14	10	2	2	+14	+10.0	32
2	Ipswich	13	7	4	2	+2	-1.0	25
3	Southampton	13	6	5	2	+0	+4.1	23
4	Millwall	13	4	5	4	+2	-4.4	17
5	Middlesbrough	13	5	2	6	-1	+3.6	17
6	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-2	-4.7	17
7	Hull	13	5	2	6	-4	-1.2	17
8	Sunderland	13	4	4	5	+2	+4.7	16
9	Bristol City	13	4	4	5	+0	+0.3	16
10	Watford	12	4	4	4	-1	-4.2	16
11	Blackburn	13	5	1	7	-4	-3.9	16
12	Coventry	13	4	3	6	+3	+0.6	15
13	West Brom	12	4	3	5	+3	-2.0	15
14	Norwich	14	4	3	7	-4	-8.7	15
15	Swansea	13	4	3	6	-5	-9.4	15
16	Preston	13	4	3	6	-7	-5.2	15
17	Leeds	12	4	2	6	+0	+3.0	14
18	Stoke	13	3	4	6	-4	-4.1	13
19	QPR	14	3	3	8	-8	-7.5	12
20	Huddersfield	13	2	5	6	-12	-10.0	11
21	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-14	-3.7	8
22	Sheffield Weds	13	2	1	10	-15	-5.1	7
23	Plymouth	13	0	5	8	-13	-9.9	5
24	Rotherham	13	0	3	10	-25	-21.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.