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Primeira Liga

Referee: J Bessa

Guimaraes

S S T T T

3–2

Full-time

Estoril

S T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

0,0

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,88 xG 0,94

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

4 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 14. · Estoril 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.6	6
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
7	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
10	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
12	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
13	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
14	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.1	0
15	AVS	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.2	0
16	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
2	Porto	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.1	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
5	Moreirense	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.0	3
6	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
7	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
8	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
9	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.4	0
10	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
2	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.4	3
3	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
5	Estrela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
6	Alverca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
7	AVS	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
8	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0
9	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.1	0
10	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.