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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Middlesbrough

S T S U T

1–0

Full-time

Millwall

U U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,2

1,5

Scored

2,7

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

32%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

45%

21%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

3,0

1,9

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,05 xG 1,29

59% Possession 41%

11 Shots 12

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Millwall 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	21	12	6	3	+22	+21.9	42
2	Burnley	20	10	8	2	+17	+7.0	38
3	Sheffield United	18	11	5	2	+15	+8.3	38
4	Sunderland	18	10	6	2	+15	+4.9	36
5	Blackburn	19	10	4	5	+6	-0.1	34
6	West Brom	20	7	11	2	+9	+2.6	32
7	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+9	+15.5	31
8	Watford	19	9	4	6	+2	-3.3	31
9	Swansea	20	7	6	7	+2	+0.0	27
10	Bristol City	20	6	9	5	+1	+3.0	27
11	Norwich	20	6	8	6	+5	+3.1	26
12	Sheffield Weds	20	7	5	8	-6	-3.1	26
13	Millwall	19	6	7	6	+3	+6.7	25
14	Derby	21	6	6	9	+0	-0.1	24
15	Coventry	20	6	5	9	-3	+12.2	23
16	Preston	21	4	11	6	-6	-2.4	23
17	QPR	21	4	10	7	-6	-6.1	22
18	Luton	20	6	4	10	-12	-2.3	22
19	Stoke	20	5	6	9	-5	-11.8	21
20	Oxford	19	4	6	9	-10	-11.8	18
21	Portsmouth	19	3	8	8	-13	-8.5	17
22	Cardiff	19	4	5	10	-13	-9.0	17
23	Plymouth	19	4	5	10	-21	-22.9	17
24	Hull	21	3	7	11	-11	-4.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	11	9	1	1	+19	+14.9	28
2	Watford	9	7	2	0	+9	+1.4	23
3	Sheffield United	8	7	1	0	+11	+9.3	22
4	Sunderland	9	6	3	0	+11	+5.8	21
5	Burnley	10	5	5	0	+10	+4.2	20
6	Blackburn	9	6	1	2	+6	+2.5	19
7	Luton	11	5	3	3	+2	+2.7	18
8	Derby	10	5	2	3	+8	+6.4	17
9	Middlesbrough	10	5	2	3	+4	+8.4	17
10	Millwall	11	5	2	4	+4	+6.3	17
11	Norwich	9	4	4	1	+12	+5.0	16
12	Oxford	10	4	4	2	+1	-4.4	16
13	Plymouth	9	4	3	2	+3	-3.0	15
14	West Brom	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.5	15
15	Preston	11	3	6	2	+1	+1.0	15
16	Bristol City	9	3	5	1	+5	+3.8	14
17	Coventry	10	4	2	4	+2	+10.5	14
18	Swansea	9	3	4	2	+3	+6.2	13
19	Stoke	10	3	4	3	+2	-2.5	13
20	Sheffield Weds	11	3	4	4	-2	+1.5	13
21	Cardiff	10	4	0	6	-3	-2.5	12
22	QPR	11	2	5	4	-3	+1.7	11
23	Portsmouth	9	2	4	3	-1	+0.5	10
24	Hull	11	1	5	5	-4	+1.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	10	5	3	2	+7	+2.8	18
2	West Brom	10	4	5	1	+6	+0.1	17
3	Sheffield United	10	4	4	2	+4	-1.0	16
4	Sunderland	9	4	3	2	+4	-0.9	15
5	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.6	15
6	Middlesbrough	10	4	2	4	+5	+7.1	14
7	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+3	+7.0	14
8	Swansea	11	4	2	5	-1	-6.2	14
9	Bristol City	11	3	4	4	-4	-0.8	13
10	Sheffield Weds	9	4	1	4	-4	-4.6	13
11	QPR	10	2	5	3	-3	-7.8	11
12	Norwich	11	2	4	5	-7	-1.9	10
13	Coventry	10	2	3	5	-5	+1.7	9
14	Millwall	8	1	5	2	-1	+0.4	8
15	Watford	10	2	2	6	-7	-4.7	8
16	Hull	10	2	2	6	-7	-5.3	8
17	Preston	10	1	5	4	-7	-3.4	8
18	Stoke	10	2	2	6	-7	-9.3	8
19	Derby	11	1	4	6	-8	-6.4	7
20	Portsmouth	10	1	4	5	-12	-8.9	7
21	Cardiff	9	0	5	4	-10	-6.5	5
22	Luton	9	1	1	7	-14	-5.0	4
23	Oxford	9	0	2	7	-11	-7.4	2
24	Plymouth	10	0	2	8	-24	-19.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.