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Championship

Referee: B Speedie

Millwall

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 44/44 matches

Win Ø 39%

39%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

30%

45%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

41%

Average goals

2,1

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,60 xG 0,97

43% Possession 57%

16 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 7. · Swansea 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	45	27	16	2	+51	+20.1	97
2	Leeds	44	27	13	4	+60	+53.7	94
3	Sheffield United	42	26	6	10	+25	+15.2	84
4	Sunderland	41	21	12	8	+21	+12.4	75
5	Bristol City	42	17	15	10	+9	+3.8	66
6	Middlesbrough	44	18	9	17	+10	+10.8	63
7	Millwall	44	17	12	15	-1	+3.1	63
8	Blackburn	44	18	8	18	+4	-2.1	62
9	Coventry	43	18	8	17	+1	+15.1	62
10	West Brom	44	14	18	12	+8	+10.9	60
11	Swansea	44	17	9	18	-4	+2.1	60
12	Watford	44	16	8	20	-7	-9.8	56
13	Sheffield Weds	44	15	11	18	-9	-1.1	56
14	Norwich	44	13	14	17	+1	+7.9	53
15	QPR	45	13	14	18	-11	-8.3	53
16	Portsmouth	44	14	10	20	-13	-9.9	52
17	Stoke	45	12	14	19	-17	-19.8	50
18	Preston	44	10	19	15	-10	-6.9	49
19	Oxford	44	12	13	19	-18	-26.6	49
20	Luton	45	13	10	22	-22	-5.3	49
21	Hull	44	12	12	20	-9	-5.4	48
22	Derby	44	12	10	22	-9	-6.4	46
23	Cardiff	44	9	16	19	-23	-14.6	43
24	Plymouth	44	10	13	21	-37	-38.8	43

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	22	17	4	1	+45	+34.5	55
2	Burnley	22	13	9	0	+25	+11.3	48
3	Bristol City	21	13	6	2	+17	+9.3	45
4	Sheffield United	20	14	2	4	+15	+15.1	44
5	Sunderland	21	12	6	3	+15	+14.2	42
6	Portsmouth	22	11	6	5	+12	+6.1	39
7	Coventry	21	12	3	6	+11	+10.8	39
8	Watford	22	12	3	7	+5	-0.4	39
9	West Brom	22	10	8	4	+11	+10.7	38
10	Middlesbrough	22	11	5	6	+8	+9.1	38
11	Blackburn	22	11	4	7	+10	+6.1	37
12	Millwall	22	11	4	7	+7	+9.4	37
13	Norwich	22	9	8	5	+16	+11.0	35
14	Swansea	22	10	5	7	+9	+9.7	35
15	Oxford	22	10	5	7	+0	-7.5	35
16	Luton	23	9	7	7	+3	+10.1	34
17	Plymouth	22	9	7	6	+2	-5.3	34
18	Preston	22	7	12	3	+5	+5.5	33
19	Stoke	23	8	9	6	+4	-5.4	33
20	Derby	22	9	4	9	+7	+3.4	31
21	QPR	23	7	8	8	-3	+0.4	29
22	Cardiff	22	7	5	10	-3	+0.5	26
23	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-2	+5.5	25
24	Hull	22	5	8	9	-3	+5.5	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	23	14	7	2	+26	+8.8	49
2	Sheffield United	22	12	4	6	+10	+0.2	40
3	Leeds	22	10	9	3	+15	+19.2	39
4	Sunderland	20	9	6	5	+6	-1.8	33
5	Sheffield Weds	22	9	4	9	-7	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	22	6	8	8	-8	-6.3	26
7	Middlesbrough	22	7	4	11	+2	+1.7	25
8	Hull	22	7	4	11	-6	-11.0	25
9	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-6	-8.2	25
10	Swansea	22	7	4	11	-13	-7.6	25
11	QPR	22	6	6	10	-8	-8.7	24
12	Coventry	22	6	5	11	-10	+4.4	23
13	West Brom	22	4	10	8	-3	+0.1	22
14	Bristol City	21	4	9	8	-8	-5.5	21
15	Norwich	22	4	6	12	-15	-3.1	18
16	Watford	22	4	5	13	-12	-9.4	17
17	Cardiff	22	2	11	9	-20	-15.2	17
18	Stoke	22	4	5	13	-21	-14.4	17
19	Preston	22	3	7	12	-15	-12.4	16
20	Derby	22	3	6	13	-16	-9.8	15
21	Luton	22	4	3	15	-25	-15.4	15
22	Oxford	22	2	8	12	-18	-19.1	14
23	Portsmouth	22	3	4	15	-25	-16.0	13
24	Plymouth	22	1	6	15	-39	-33.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.