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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Middlesbrough

T T T T S

1–0

Full-time

Derby

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 30%

38%

21%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

56%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,00 xG 0,20

65% Possession 35%

18 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 11. · Derby 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	35	22	10	3	+50	+43.0	76
2	Burnley	34	18	14	2	+34	+9.8	68
3	Sheffield United	32	20	6	6	+20	+12.3	66
4	Sunderland	33	18	10	5	+21	+10.7	64
5	West Brom	35	12	16	7	+13	+8.3	52
6	Coventry	34	15	7	12	+5	+18.8	52
7	Blackburn	35	15	7	13	+5	-0.2	52
8	Bristol City	33	12	13	8	+6	+5.4	49
9	Norwich	35	12	12	11	+8	+8.9	48
10	Watford	34	14	6	14	-3	-8.6	48
11	Middlesbrough	34	13	8	13	+8	+12.7	47
12	Millwall	34	11	12	11	+0	+5.1	45
13	Sheffield Weds	35	12	9	14	-9	-2.8	45
14	QPR	34	11	11	12	-3	-5.8	44
15	Preston	34	9	15	10	-5	-1.0	42
16	Swansea	34	11	7	16	-9	-1.1	40
17	Portsmouth	34	10	9	15	-13	-10.4	39
18	Oxford	35	9	11	15	-16	-19.4	38
19	Cardiff	34	8	12	14	-18	-13.7	36
20	Stoke	34	8	11	15	-13	-19.2	35
21	Hull	34	8	9	17	-11	-6.6	33
22	Plymouth	34	6	12	16	-32	-31.0	30
23	Derby	34	7	8	19	-14	-8.0	29
24	Luton	34	7	7	20	-24	-7.5	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	18	14	3	1	+36	+28.0	45
2	Burnley	17	9	8	0	+18	+5.6	35
3	Sunderland	16	10	5	1	+15	+9.3	35
4	Sheffield United	16	11	2	3	+11	+11.6	35
5	Blackburn	18	10	3	5	+10	+5.8	33
6	Bristol City	16	9	5	2	+13	+8.8	32
7	Watford	17	10	2	5	+5	-1.5	32
8	West Brom	17	8	7	2	+12	+8.5	31
9	Norwich	17	8	6	3	+18	+12.0	30
10	Coventry	17	9	3	5	+8	+11.4	30
11	Portsmouth	17	8	5	4	+10	+3.8	29
12	Oxford	18	8	5	5	+1	-4.3	29
13	Preston	17	6	9	2	+5	+4.0	27
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	5	5	+5	+6.2	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	+4	+3.5	26
16	Millwall	17	7	4	6	+4	+6.8	25
17	Plymouth	17	6	7	4	+2	-5.4	25
18	Cardiff	17	7	3	7	+0	-1.8	24
19	Swansea	17	6	5	6	+5	+7.8	23
20	Luton	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.1	23
21	Stoke	17	5	7	5	+1	-5.4	22
22	Sheffield Weds	18	5	7	6	+0	+3.6	22
23	Derby	17	6	3	8	+3	+1.0	21
24	Hull	17	2	7	8	-6	+1.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+16	+4.2	33
2	Leeds	17	8	7	2	+14	+15.0	31
3	Sheffield United	16	9	4	3	+9	+0.7	31
4	Sunderland	17	8	5	4	+6	+1.4	29
5	Sheffield Weds	17	7	2	8	-9	-6.4	23
6	Coventry	17	6	4	7	-3	+7.4	22
7	Middlesbrough	17	6	3	8	+3	+6.5	21
8	West Brom	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.2	21
9	Millwall	17	4	8	5	-4	-1.8	20
10	Hull	17	6	2	9	-5	-7.6	20
11	Blackburn	17	5	4	8	-5	-6.0	19
12	QPR	17	4	6	7	-7	-9.2	18
13	Norwich	18	4	6	8	-10	-3.1	18
14	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	-7	-3.3	17
15	Swansea	17	5	2	10	-14	-8.9	17
16	Watford	17	4	4	9	-8	-7.0	16
17	Preston	17	3	6	8	-10	-5.1	15
18	Stoke	17	3	4	10	-14	-13.7	13
19	Cardiff	17	1	9	7	-18	-11.9	12
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	-23	-14.2	10
21	Oxford	17	1	6	10	-17	-15.1	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	-17	-8.9	8
23	Luton	17	1	2	14	-24	-12.5	5
24	Plymouth	17	0	5	12	-34	-25.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.