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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

RB Leipzig

U S U U S

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,3

1,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

43%

48%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

57%

43%

Both score Ø 48%

52%

43%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,39 xG 1,49

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 6. · Mainz 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	19	4	1	+52	+42.8	61
2	Leverkusen	23	14	8	1	+24	+20.9	50
3	Ein Frankfurt	23	12	6	5	+16	+7.7	42
4	Freiburg	23	12	3	8	-2	+0.8	39
5	Mainz	23	11	5	7	+13	+1.4	38
6	RB Leipzig	23	10	8	5	+7	-5.1	38
7	Stuttgart	24	10	6	8	+5	+8.7	36
8	Wolfsburg	23	9	7	7	+9	-1.2	34
9	M'gladbach	23	10	4	9	+0	-5.3	34
10	Dortmund	23	9	5	9	+5	+9.3	32
11	Augsburg	23	8	7	8	-8	-8.1	31
12	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-12	-3.0	30
13	Union Berlin	23	6	6	11	-14	-6.3	24
14	Hoffenheim	23	5	7	11	-16	-12.2	22
15	St Pauli	23	6	3	14	-9	-6.8	21
16	Heidenheim	23	4	3	16	-20	-10.4	15
17	Bochum	23	3	6	14	-25	-17.1	15
18	Holstein Kiel	23	3	4	16	-25	-16.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	11	1	0	+32	+29.0	34
2	Leverkusen	12	8	3	1	+14	+13.3	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Dortmund	12	7	3	2	+16	+11.5	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	3	1	+15	+10.9	24
6	RB Leipzig	11	6	4	1	+8	+3.2	22
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	6	2	5	+7	+9.9	20
9	M'gladbach	12	6	2	4	+6	+0.5	20
10	Augsburg	11	5	3	3	+2	+3.1	18
11	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	+2.9	16
12	Wolfsburg	12	3	5	4	+0	+0.9	14
13	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.3	13
14	Bochum	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.0	12
15	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.8	12
16	Holstein Kiel	12	3	1	8	-13	-7.1	10
17	St Pauli	11	2	3	6	-5	-0.5	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-11	-4.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+20	+13.8	27
2	Leverkusen	11	6	5	0	+10	+7.6	23
3	Wolfsburg	11	6	2	3	+9	-2.1	20
4	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+1	-3.3	18
5	Mainz	11	5	2	4	+7	-3.9	17
6	Werder Bremen	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
7	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
8	Stuttgart	11	4	4	3	-2	-1.2	16
9	M'gladbach	11	4	2	5	-6	-5.9	14
10	Freiburg	12	4	2	6	-13	-3.7	14
11	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-10	-11.3	13
12	St Pauli	12	4	0	8	-4	-6.3	12
13	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.5	10
14	Heidenheim	12	2	2	8	-9	-5.8	8
15	Dortmund	11	2	2	7	-11	-2.2	8
16	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-14	-9.2	8
17	Holstein Kiel	11	0	3	8	-12	-9.1	3
18	Bochum	12	0	3	9	-19	-14.1	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.