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Championship

Referee: A Herczeg

Middlesbrough

T S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Watford

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 39%

39%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

48%

66%

Both score Ø 59%

55%

63%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,3

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,91 xG 1,57

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Watford 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	32	20	9	3	+47	+41.0	69
2	Burnley	33	17	14	2	+30	+9.5	65
3	Sheffield United	30	19	6	5	+21	+11.8	63
4	Sunderland	30	17	10	3	+22	+12.0	61
5	Blackburn	32	14	6	12	+6	-0.1	48
6	West Brom	32	11	14	7	+11	+6.7	47
7	Bristol City	32	11	13	8	+5	+4.5	46
8	Sheffield Weds	32	12	9	11	-3	-2.6	45
9	Middlesbrough	31	12	8	11	+8	+13.4	44
10	QPR	33	11	11	11	-2	-4.7	44
11	Norwich	32	11	10	11	+6	+7.4	43
12	Coventry	31	12	7	12	+2	+16.5	43
13	Watford	32	12	6	14	-6	-11.0	42
14	Preston	32	9	14	9	-4	-1.3	41
15	Millwall	31	10	10	11	-1	+3.9	40
16	Oxford	33	9	11	13	-13	-15.4	38
17	Swansea	32	10	7	15	-10	-2.9	37
18	Portsmouth	33	9	9	15	-14	-11.4	36
19	Stoke	31	7	11	13	-11	-17.0	32
20	Cardiff	32	7	11	14	-19	-14.4	32
21	Hull	31	7	8	16	-11	-5.3	29
22	Derby	33	7	8	18	-13	-6.0	29
23	Plymouth	31	6	10	15	-30	-27.8	28
24	Luton	31	7	6	18	-21	-6.7	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	16	13	2	1	+35	+26.1	41
2	Sunderland	15	10	5	0	+16	+9.1	35
3	Sheffield United	15	11	2	2	+13	+11.6	35
4	Burnley	16	8	8	0	+14	+5.3	32
5	Bristol City	15	8	5	2	+12	+7.8	29
6	Blackburn	16	9	2	5	+8	+4.0	29
7	Watford	16	9	2	5	+3	-3.3	29
8	Oxford	17	8	5	4	+2	-2.8	29
9	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+10	+6.1	28
10	Norwich	16	7	6	3	+16	+10.8	27
11	Coventry	16	8	3	5	+7	+10.5	27
12	Portsmouth	16	7	5	4	+9	+2.8	26
13	Middlesbrough	16	7	5	4	+6	+6.9	26
14	Preston	16	6	8	2	+5	+3.0	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	+4	+3.5	26
16	Millwall	16	7	3	6	+4	+6.6	24
17	Plymouth	16	6	6	4	+2	-4.9	24
18	Sheffield Weds	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.5	22
19	Luton	15	6	4	5	+1	+4.1	22
20	Derby	16	6	3	7	+4	+3.0	21
21	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	-1	-2.0	21
22	Swansea	16	5	5	6	+2	+5.9	20
23	Stoke	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.5	19
24	Hull	16	2	6	8	-6	+1.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+16	+4.2	33
2	Leeds	16	7	7	2	+12	+14.9	28
3	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+8	+0.2	28
4	Sunderland	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.9	26
5	Sheffield Weds	16	7	2	7	-5	-6.1	23
6	West Brom	16	4	7	5	+1	+0.6	19
7	Blackburn	16	5	4	7	-2	-4.1	19
8	Middlesbrough	15	5	3	7	+2	+6.5	18
9	QPR	16	4	6	6	-6	-8.2	18
10	Hull	15	5	2	8	-5	-7.1	17
11	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	-7	-3.3	17
12	Swansea	16	5	2	9	-12	-8.9	17
13	Coventry	15	4	4	7	-5	+5.9	16
14	Millwall	15	3	7	5	-5	-2.7	16
15	Norwich	16	4	4	8	-10	-3.4	16
16	Preston	16	3	6	7	-9	-4.2	15
17	Watford	16	3	4	9	-9	-7.7	13
18	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-12	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	16	1	8	7	-18	-12.4	11
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	-23	-14.2	10
21	Oxford	16	1	6	9	-15	-12.7	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	-17	-8.9	8
23	Luton	16	1	2	13	-22	-10.8	5
24	Plymouth	15	0	4	11	-32	-22.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.