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La Liga

Referee: Gil Manzano

Ath Madrid

S U U S U

1–0

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 56%

60%

52%

Points per game

2,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

36%

48%

Both score Ø 56%

44%

68%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,25 xG 1,12

51% Possession 49%

12 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Ath Bilbao 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	17	3	5	+42	+30.2	54
2	Real Madrid	26	16	6	4	+30	+24.2	54
3	Ath Madrid	25	15	8	2	+26	+18.8	53
4	Ath Bilbao	25	13	9	3	+22	+17.8	48
5	Villarreal	25	12	8	5	+13	+15.6	44
6	Betis	26	10	8	8	+1	+6.5	38
7	Vallecano	26	9	9	8	+1	+2.6	36
8	Mallorca	25	10	5	10	-7	-0.3	35
9	Sociedad	25	10	4	11	+0	+2.3	34
10	Celta	26	9	6	11	-2	+8.4	33
11	Sevilla	26	8	9	9	-5	-6.9	33
12	Girona	26	9	5	12	-5	-3.1	32
13	Osasuna	25	7	11	7	-5	-7.5	32
14	Getafe	25	7	9	9	+1	-5.8	30
15	Espanol	25	7	6	12	-12	-20.0	27
16	Las Palmas	26	6	6	14	-14	-24.9	24
17	Leganes	25	5	9	11	-16	-22.6	24
18	Valencia	25	5	8	12	-16	-9.4	23
19	Alaves	25	5	7	13	-11	-1.6	22
20	Valladolid	26	4	4	18	-43	-24.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	+20	+18.9	31
2	Ath Madrid	13	9	4	0	+16	+17.1	31
3	Ath Bilbao	13	8	4	1	+18	+12.5	28
4	Celta	13	8	2	3	+9	+6.1	26
5	Barcelona	11	8	0	3	+20	+20.7	24
6	Betis	13	6	5	2	+6	+13.0	23
7	Osasuna	13	6	5	2	+5	+2.0	23
8	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	-4.8	22
9	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
10	Girona	13	6	2	5	+4	+6.0	20
11	Sociedad	13	6	2	5	+2	+4.1	20
12	Vallecano	13	5	4	4	+1	+8.5	19
13	Mallorca	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.1	19
14	Sevilla	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
15	Valencia	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.4	18
16	Getafe	13	3	7	3	+2	+2.1	16
17	Leganes	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.8	14
18	Alaves	12	3	4	5	-3	+1.6	13
19	Las Palmas	13	3	4	6	-4	-6.6	13
20	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-12	-6.2	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+22	+9.6	30
2	Villarreal	13	7	3	3	+4	+7.3	24
3	Real Madrid	14	6	5	3	+10	+5.2	23
4	Ath Madrid	12	6	4	2	+10	+1.6	22
5	Ath Bilbao	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.3	20
6	Vallecano	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.0	17
7	Mallorca	12	5	1	6	-6	+1.8	16
8	Betis	13	4	3	6	-5	-6.5	15
9	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-1	-7.9	14
10	Sevilla	13	3	5	5	-2	-6.8	14
11	Sociedad	12	4	2	6	-2	-1.8	14
12	Girona	13	3	3	7	-9	-9.1	12
13	Las Palmas	13	3	2	8	-10	-18.3	11
14	Leganes	13	1	7	5	-9	-14.8	10
15	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.2	9
16	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
17	Celta	13	1	4	8	-11	+2.3	7
18	Espanol	12	1	2	9	-15	-15.2	5
19	Valencia	12	0	5	7	-17	-10.8	5
20	Valladolid	13	1	0	12	-31	-18.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.