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Championship

Referee: E Bell

Derby

T T U U T

0–1

Full-time

Millwall

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 26%

21%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

42%

27%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,40 xG 2,40

51% Possession 49%

9 Shots 11

0 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 22. · Millwall 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	33	21	9	3	+48	+42.5	72
2	Burnley	34	18	14	2	+34	+9.8	68
3	Sheffield United	31	20	6	5	+22	+12.4	66
4	Sunderland	31	17	10	4	+21	+10.6	61
5	Blackburn	33	15	6	12	+8	+1.2	51
6	Bristol City	33	12	13	8	+6	+5.4	49
7	West Brom	33	11	15	7	+11	+6.4	48
8	Coventry	32	13	7	12	+3	+16.4	46
9	Watford	33	13	6	14	-5	-10.3	45
10	Sheffield Weds	34	12	9	13	-8	-2.8	45
11	Norwich	33	11	11	11	+6	+8.2	44
12	Middlesbrough	33	12	8	13	+6	+11.7	44
13	QPR	33	11	11	11	-2	-4.7	44
14	Millwall	33	10	12	11	-1	+3.1	42
15	Preston	33	9	15	9	-4	-0.2	42
16	Oxford	33	9	11	13	-13	-15.4	38
17	Swansea	33	10	7	16	-12	-3.0	37
18	Portsmouth	33	9	9	15	-14	-11.4	36
19	Stoke	32	8	11	13	-9	-17.0	35
20	Cardiff	32	7	11	14	-19	-14.4	32
21	Hull	32	7	9	16	-11	-6.1	30
22	Derby	33	7	8	18	-13	-6.0	29
23	Plymouth	33	6	11	16	-32	-30.6	29
24	Luton	33	7	7	19	-22	-5.7	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	17	14	2	1	+36	+27.5	44
2	Burnley	17	9	8	0	+18	+5.6	35
3	Sunderland	15	10	5	0	+16	+9.1	35
4	Sheffield United	15	11	2	2	+13	+11.6	35
5	Bristol City	16	9	5	2	+13	+8.8	32
6	Blackburn	17	10	2	5	+10	+5.3	32
7	Watford	16	9	2	5	+3	-3.3	29
8	Oxford	17	8	5	4	+2	-2.8	29
9	West Brom	16	7	7	2	+10	+6.1	28
10	Norwich	16	7	6	3	+16	+10.8	27
11	Coventry	16	8	3	5	+7	+10.5	27
12	Preston	17	6	9	2	+5	+4.0	27
13	Portsmouth	16	7	5	4	+9	+2.8	26
14	Middlesbrough	17	7	5	5	+5	+6.2	26
15	QPR	17	7	5	5	+4	+3.5	26
16	Millwall	17	7	4	6	+4	+6.8	25
17	Plymouth	16	6	6	4	+2	-4.9	24
18	Luton	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.1	23
19	Stoke	16	5	7	4	+3	-4.5	22
20	Sheffield Weds	17	5	7	5	+1	+3.5	22
21	Derby	16	6	3	7	+4	+3.0	21
22	Cardiff	16	6	3	7	-1	-2.0	21
23	Swansea	16	5	5	6	+2	+5.9	20
24	Hull	17	2	7	8	-6	+1.0	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	17	9	6	2	+16	+4.2	33
2	Sheffield United	16	9	4	3	+9	+0.7	31
3	Leeds	16	7	7	2	+12	+14.9	28
4	Sunderland	16	7	5	4	+5	+1.5	26
5	Sheffield Weds	17	7	2	8	-9	-6.4	23
6	West Brom	17	4	8	5	+1	+0.3	20
7	Blackburn	16	5	4	7	-2	-4.1	19
8	Coventry	16	5	4	7	-4	+5.9	19
9	Middlesbrough	16	5	3	8	+1	+5.5	18
10	QPR	16	4	6	6	-6	-8.2	18
11	Hull	15	5	2	8	-5	-7.1	17
12	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-5	-3.8	17
13	Bristol City	17	3	8	6	-7	-3.3	17
14	Norwich	17	4	5	8	-10	-2.6	17
15	Swansea	17	5	2	10	-14	-8.9	17
16	Watford	17	4	4	9	-8	-7.0	16
17	Preston	16	3	6	7	-9	-4.2	15
18	Stoke	16	3	4	9	-12	-12.5	13
19	Cardiff	16	1	8	7	-18	-12.4	11
20	Portsmouth	17	2	4	11	-23	-14.2	10
21	Oxford	16	1	6	9	-15	-12.7	9
22	Derby	17	1	5	11	-17	-8.9	8
23	Luton	16	1	2	13	-22	-10.8	5
24	Plymouth	17	0	5	12	-34	-25.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.