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Bundesliga
Referee: S Storks
Heidenheim
T S T T U
0–3
Full-time
M'gladbach
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 30%
17%
43%
Points per game
0,7
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
57%
61%
Both score Ø 54%
43%
65%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,65 xG 1,81
44% Possession 56%
20 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 5
11 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Heidenheim 16. · M'gladbach 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 24 19 4 1 +52 +42.8 61
2 Leverkusen 23 14 8 1 +24 +20.9 50
3 Ein Frankfurt 23 12 6 5 +16 +7.7 42
4 Freiburg 23 12 3 8 -2 +0.8 39
5 Mainz 23 11 5 7 +13 +1.4 38
6 RB Leipzig 23 10 8 5 +7 -5.1 38
7 Stuttgart 24 10 6 8 +5 +8.7 36
8 Wolfsburg 23 9 7 7 +9 -1.2 34
9 M'gladbach 23 10 4 9 +0 -5.3 34
10 Dortmund 23 9 5 9 +5 +9.3 32
11 Augsburg 23 8 7 8 -8 -8.1 31
12 Werder Bremen 23 8 6 9 -12 -3.0 30
13 Union Berlin 23 6 6 11 -14 -6.3 24
14 Hoffenheim 23 5 7 11 -16 -12.2 22
15 St Pauli 23 6 3 14 -9 -6.8 21
16 Heidenheim 23 4 3 16 -20 -10.4 15
17 Bochum 23 3 6 14 -25 -17.1 15
18 Holstein Kiel 23 3 4 16 -25 -16.2 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Heidenheim M'gladbach
6′
🟨 Joseph Scally
8′
R. Hack 0–1
J. Weigl
18′
N. Ngoumou 0–2
A. Pléa
Léo Scienza 🔁
↦ L. Kerber
33′
Half-time 0–2
M. Pieringer 🔁
↦ B. Zivzivadze
46′
A. Beck 🔁
↦ S. Conteh
46′
46′
🔁 L. Netz
↦ L. Ullrich
Benedikt Gimber 🟨
49′
49′
🟨 Ko Itakura
Patrick Mainka 🟨
58′
59′
R. Hack 0–3
L. Netz
61′
🟨 Alassane Pléa
S. Schimmer 🔁
↦ J. Föhrenbach
62′
62′
🔁 M. Friedrich
↦ N. Ngoumou
62′
🔁 K. Stöger
↦ A. Pléa
69′
ℹ️ Robin Hack
VAR: Goal cancelled
F. Krätzig 🔁
↦ P. Wanner
71′
78′
🔁 T. Čvančara
↦ R. Hack
78′
🔁 S. Lainer
↦ J. Scally
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Heidenheim

3-4-2-1
1 K. Müller G
6 P. Mainka D
5 B. Gimber D
4 T. Siersleben D
23 O. Traoré M
20 L. Kerber M
10 P. Wanner M
19 J. Föhrenbach M
31 S. Conteh F
17 M. Honsak F
12 B. Zivzivadze F
Bench (9)
8 Léo Scienza
18 M. Pieringer
21 A. Beck
9 S. Schimmer
13 F. Krätzig
2 M. Busch
39 N. Dorsch
40 F. Feller
27 T. Keller

Coach: F. Schmidt

M'gladbach

4-2-3-1
42 T. Pereira Cardoso G
29 J. Scally D
3 K. Itakura D
30 N. Elvedi D
26 L. Ullrich D
16 P. Sander M
8 J. Weigl M
19 N. Ngoumou M
14 A. Pléa M
25 R. Hack M
11 T. Kleindienst F
Bench (9)
20 L. Netz
5 M. Friedrich
7 K. Stöger
31 T. Čvančara
22 S. Lainer
10 F. Neuhaus
13 S. Fukuda
21 T. Sippel
2 F. Chiarodia

Coach: G. Seoane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,02
U
3,59
B ✓
2,29
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,64
U2,5
2,28
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Storks · 54 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.