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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Ferreira

Arouca

S S U U U

0–2

Full-time

Porto

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 44%

26%

61%

Points per game

1,1

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

52%

Both score Ø 48%

57%

39%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,58 xG 1,51

49% Possession 51%

6 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 13. · Porto 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	16	5	2	+41	+34.0	53
2	Benfica	23	17	2	4	+35	+31.5	53
3	Porto	23	14	5	4	+28	+22.2	47
4	Sp Braga	23	14	5	4	+19	+16.0	47
5	Santa Clara	23	12	3	8	+2	+6.9	39
6	Casa Pia	23	10	6	7	+2	-4.4	36
7	Estoril	23	9	7	7	-5	-15.8	34
8	Guimaraes	23	7	11	5	+5	+8.0	32
9	Famalicao	24	7	10	7	+1	-5.5	31
10	Moreirense	23	7	5	11	-7	+0.7	26
11	Nacional	24	7	5	12	-9	-4.9	26
12	Rio Ave	23	6	8	9	-13	-15.4	26
13	Arouca	23	6	7	10	-13	-8.1	25
14	Gil Vicente	23	5	7	11	-12	-9.1	22
15	Estrela	23	5	6	12	-15	-13.1	21
16	AVS	23	3	11	9	-15	-10.9	20
17	Farense	23	3	7	13	-18	-16.6	16
18	Boavista	23	2	6	15	-26	-15.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	0	1	+30	+23.1	33
2	Porto	12	9	3	0	+23	+22.0	30
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+18	+14.3	28
4	Casa Pia	12	6	4	2	+6	+2.4	22
5	Santa Clara	12	7	1	4	+1	+9.3	22
6	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+9	+14.0	21
7	Estoril	12	6	3	3	+0	-6.1	21
8	Guimaraes	11	5	5	1	+6	+6.2	20
9	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
10	Moreirense	11	5	4	2	+2	-0.6	19
11	Rio Ave	11	4	6	1	+1	-0.8	18
12	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
13	Famalicao	12	3	6	3	+0	+0.1	15
14	Estrela	12	4	3	5	-3	-4.8	15
15	AVS	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.3	14
16	Arouca	11	3	4	4	-4	-4.9	13
17	Farense	11	2	1	8	-11	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	11	0	3	8	-14	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+10	+2.0	26
2	Sp Lisbon	12	7	4	1	+23	+19.6	25
3	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
4	Porto	11	5	2	4	+5	+0.2	17
5	Santa Clara	11	5	2	4	+1	-2.5	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	+1	-5.6	16
7	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-4	-6.8	14
8	Estoril	11	3	4	4	-5	-9.8	13
9	Guimaraes	12	2	6	4	-1	+1.8	12
10	Arouca	12	3	3	6	-9	-3.2	12
11	Farense	12	1	6	5	-7	-11.8	9
12	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
13	Rio Ave	12	2	2	8	-14	-14.6	8
14	Moreirense	12	2	1	9	-9	+1.3	7
15	Nacional	12	1	3	8	-8	-3.7	6
16	AVS	11	0	6	5	-10	-4.6	6
17	Estrela	11	1	3	7	-12	-8.3	6
18	Gil Vicente	12	1	3	8	-16	-9.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.