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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Mainz

T S T U S

2–0

Full-time

St Pauli

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 36%

45%

27%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

45%

32%

Both score Ø 34%

45%

23%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,8

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,34 xG 0,85

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 5

6 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 6. · St Pauli 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	17	4	1	+46	+38.0	55
2	Leverkusen	22	13	8	1	+22	+19.4	47
3	Ein Frankfurt	22	12	6	4	+20	+11.1	42
4	Freiburg	23	12	3	8	-2	+0.8	39
5	RB Leipzig	22	10	7	5	+7	-6.3	37
6	Mainz	22	10	5	7	+11	+0.9	35
7	Stuttgart	22	10	5	7	+7	+8.1	35
8	M'gladbach	22	10	4	8	+3	-5.1	34
9	Wolfsburg	22	9	6	7	+9	-2.1	33
10	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-12	-3.0	30
11	Dortmund	22	8	5	9	-1	+4.9	29
12	Augsburg	22	7	7	8	-11	-8.3	28
13	Union Berlin	22	6	6	10	-8	-1.8	24
14	St Pauli	22	6	3	13	-7	-6.4	21
15	Hoffenheim	22	5	6	11	-16	-10.2	21
16	Heidenheim	22	4	2	16	-20	-9.2	14
17	Bochum	22	3	5	14	-25	-16.2	14
18	Holstein Kiel	22	3	4	15	-23	-14.6	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	10	1	0	+28	+25.5	31
2	Leverkusen	12	8	3	1	+14	+13.3	27
3	Freiburg	11	8	1	2	+11	+4.6	25
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	3	1	+15	+10.9	24
5	Dortmund	11	6	3	2	+10	+7.0	21
6	RB Leipzig	10	6	3	1	+8	+2.0	21
7	Stuttgart	12	6	2	4	+9	+11.2	20
8	M'gladbach	11	6	2	3	+9	+0.7	20
9	Mainz	11	5	3	3	+4	+4.8	18
10	Augsburg	11	5	3	3	+2	+3.1	18
11	Union Berlin	11	4	4	3	+0	+2.9	16
12	Wolfsburg	11	3	4	4	+0	+0.1	13
13	Werder Bremen	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.3	13
14	Bochum	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.0	12
15	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-8	-1.8	11
16	Holstein Kiel	11	3	1	7	-11	-5.5	10
17	St Pauli	11	2	3	6	-5	-0.5	9
18	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-11	-4.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	7	3	1	+18	+12.5	24
2	Wolfsburg	11	6	2	3	+9	-2.1	20
3	Leverkusen	10	5	5	0	+8	+6.1	20
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+5	+0.2	18
5	Mainz	11	5	2	4	+7	-3.9	17
6	Werder Bremen	12	5	2	5	-7	-3.3	17
7	RB Leipzig	12	4	4	4	-1	-8.3	16
8	Stuttgart	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.2	15
9	M'gladbach	11	4	2	5	-6	-5.9	14
10	Freiburg	12	4	2	6	-13	-3.7	14
11	St Pauli	11	4	0	7	-2	-5.8	12
12	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-8	-8.5	10
13	Augsburg	11	2	4	5	-13	-11.5	10
14	Union Berlin	11	2	2	7	-8	-4.7	8
15	Dortmund	11	2	2	7	-11	-2.2	8
16	Heidenheim	11	2	1	8	-9	-4.6	7
17	Holstein Kiel	11	0	3	8	-12	-9.1	3
18	Bochum	11	0	2	9	-19	-13.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.