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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Derby

T S T S S

1–2

Full-time

Millwall

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 34/32 matches

Win Ø 33%

32%

34%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

41%

38%

Both score Ø 56%

53%

59%

Average goals

2,1

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 1

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 15. · Millwall 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	33	21	7	5	+53	70
2	Bournemouth	31	17	8	6	+23	59
3	Blackburn	33	16	9	8	+16	57
4	Coventry	34	16	8	10	+11	56
5	Sheffield United	32	16	7	9	+16	55
6	Middlesbrough	33	16	7	10	+11	55
7	QPR	33	15	8	10	+9	53
8	Huddersfield	32	14	11	7	+9	53
9	West Brom	35	14	10	11	+9	52
10	Preston	36	13	13	10	+1	52
11	Luton	31	14	8	9	+10	50
12	Nott'm Forest	31	13	8	10	+10	47
13	Stoke	32	13	8	11	+8	47
14	Blackpool	33	12	9	12	-1	45
15	Derby	34	11	12	11	-2	45
16	Millwall	32	11	10	11	-1	43
17	Bristol City	35	12	7	16	-15	43
18	Swansea	32	11	8	13	-8	41
19	Cardiff	34	11	7	16	-8	40
20	Reading	35	11	6	18	-20	39
21	Birmingham	36	9	11	16	-16	38
22	Hull	35	9	7	19	-13	34
23	Barnsley	33	4	9	20	-25	21
24	Peterborough	31	5	6	20	-38	21
25	Peterboro	32	5	6	21	-39	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	18	12	2	4	+14	38
2	Fulham	18	11	4	3	+27	37
3	Blackburn	17	11	3	3	+16	36
4	West Brom	16	9	6	1	+16	33
5	Coventry	17	10	3	4	+13	33
6	Derby	17	9	6	2	+9	33
7	Luton	16	9	4	3	+12	31
8	QPR	17	8	6	3	+10	30
9	Huddersfield	15	8	5	2	+8	29
10	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
11	Blackpool	18	9	2	7	+1	29
12	Stoke	17	8	4	5	+8	28
13	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
14	Sheffield United	15	8	3	4	+16	27
15	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+14	27
16	Preston	18	6	9	3	+3	27
17	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+0	26
18	Nott'm Forest	16	7	3	6	+3	24
19	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
20	Reading	18	6	4	8	-8	22
21	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	+1	20
22	Hull	18	5	3	10	-6	18
23	Peterboro	15	4	5	6	-3	17
24	Peterborough	15	4	5	6	-3	17
25	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+0	28
4	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	25
5	Huddersfield	17	6	6	5	+1	24
6	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
7	QPR	16	7	2	7	-1	23
8	Coventry	17	6	5	6	-2	23
9	Blackburn	16	5	6	5	+0	21
10	Cardiff	17	5	5	7	-9	20
11	Stoke	15	5	4	6	+0	19
12	Luton	15	5	4	6	-2	19
13	West Brom	19	5	4	10	-7	19
14	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-3	17
15	Reading	17	5	2	10	-12	17
16	Bristol City	17	5	2	10	-15	17
17	Blackpool	15	3	7	5	-2	16
18	Hull	17	4	4	9	-7	16
19	Birmingham	19	3	6	10	-16	15
20	Millwall	16	3	5	8	-8	14
21	Swansea	16	3	4	9	-16	13
22	Derby	17	2	6	9	-11	12
23	Barnsley	18	1	5	12	-17	8
24	Peterborough	16	1	1	14	-35	4
25	Peterboro	17	1	1	15	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.